SAP’s Record Cloud Backlog Lifts Shares From a 52-Week Low, Even as AI Deals Dent the Profit Outlook
Published on 07/25/2026 at 18:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP shares staged a dramatic reversal on Friday, surging more than 9% to close at €140.80 just one day after hitting a 52-week trough of €127.52. The rebound, which handed investors their best single-session gain in months, was triggered by quarterly results that revealed an acceleration in the company’s cloud order book — a metric that has become the most closely watched gauge of future revenue visibility.
The current cloud backlog, representing contracted revenue expected over the next twelve months, swelled to a record €22.93 billion in the second quarter, a 27% increase year-on-year. That growth rate actually picked up from the first quarter, a sign that demand for SAP’s subscription-based software is gaining momentum rather than slowing. Cloud revenue itself rose 24% on a currency-adjusted basis to €6.28 billion, with the cloud ERP suite — the company’s flagship offering — climbing 27% to €5.53 billion, accounting for 88% of total cloud turnover.
AI Integration Takes Centre Stage in Big-Ticket Deals
Chief Executive Christian Klein has been pushing the narrative of an “autonomous enterprise” where artificial intelligence is woven into the fabric of business processes. That pitch appears to be resonating. SAP disclosed that AI solutions and its data cloud capabilities featured in more than 90% of the 50 largest contracts signed during the quarter. The company plans to roll out over 400 autonomous AI agents by year-end, with its “Joule” assistant designed to automate customer workflows.
To bolster the technical infrastructure, SAP completed two acquisitions this month: Dremio on July 6 and Prior Labs on July 17, both specialists in data platform technology. These deals are central to Klein’s strategy of embedding AI deeper into the product stack, but they come at a cost.
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Acquisition Costs Force a Slight Guidance Trim
The IFRS operating profit rose 8% to €2.6 billion in the second quarter, while earnings per share jumped 30% to €1.89. Yet the company lowered its full-year outlook for operating profit, now expecting currency-adjusted growth of 13% to 17%, down from the previous range of 14% to 18%. In absolute terms, the guidance was trimmed to between €11.8 billion and €12.2 billion, versus an earlier ceiling of €12.3 billion. Management attributed the revision to dilution from the two acquisitions.
SAP held firm on its cloud revenue target of €25.8 billion to €26.2 billion for the full year, suggesting that management sees the order backlog as a reliable buffer against macroeconomic headwinds.
A Bounce That Leaves the Year-to-Date Picture Bleak
Despite Friday’s rally, the stock remains down roughly 32% since the start of the year. The 52-week low set just a day earlier underscores how far the shares have fallen from grace. The relative strength index now sits at 52.5, a neutral reading that leaves room for further upside without signalling overbought conditions.
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A €10 billion share buyback programme, running through the end of 2027, provides an additional floor under the stock. But the volatility remains elevated at around 43.5% on an annualised basis, reflecting lingering caution among investors about how quickly the AI roadmap can translate into sustainable earnings growth.
Analysts have praised the operational stability of the core cloud business, but they also point to geopolitical risks — particularly tensions in the Middle East — that have already lengthened decision cycles among large enterprise customers. The key question now is whether the record backlog can be converted into margin expansion fast enough to offset the integration costs of the newly acquired AI units.
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