SAP’s Stock Hovers Near a Year Low as Investors Await a Cloud-Heavy Earnings Report
Published on 07/23/2026 at 19:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SAP shares are trading under pressure Thursday, with the stock slipping 1.38% to €128.98 in Frankfurt, putting it just 1.14% above the 52-week low of €127.52 touched earlier in the session. The software giant is set to release its second-quarter and first-half 2026 results after the US market close, scheduled for 22:05 MESZ, and the market’s nervous anticipation has been palpable.
The stock has shed roughly a third of its value year-to-date, with the decline accelerating to 36.58% since January. Over a 12-month horizon, the losses deepen to 46.87%. The relative strength index (RSI) currently sits at 35.7, a level that typically signals oversold conditions and suggests that much of the bearish sentiment may already be priced in. Technically, the shares are trading 8.34% below their 50-day moving average and more than 25% below the 200-day average — a clear indication of the sustained selling pressure.
Cloud Revenue in the Spotlight
Analysts expect SAP to report total revenue of €9.85 billion for the second quarter, with adjusted earnings per share of €1.75. The cloud business, the company’s primary growth engine, is forecast to deliver around €6.26 billion in revenue, representing growth of roughly 22% year-over-year. That figure will be closely scrutinized, as it serves as a barometer for whether SAP can maintain momentum in its transition from traditional on-premise software to subscription-based cloud services.
There was a glimmer of optimism earlier this week when ServiceNow surprised markets with strong quarterly numbers, which some analysts interpreted as a positive read-across for SAP. However, the broader technology landscape remains challenging. Alphabet reported a 23% revenue increase to $119.8 billion and cloud growth of 82% to $24.8 billion, yet its shares still came under pressure. The culprit: an elevated capital expenditure forecast of $195 billion to $205 billion for 2026, coupled with a negative free cash flow of $5.9 billion. Adding to the unease, Reuters reported that Alphabet’s planned Gemini 3.5 Pro model has been delayed, even as work on Gemini 4 continues. For investors in software stocks like SAP, this reinforces fears that the massive AI spending spree by platform giants could reshape the competitive landscape without delivering immediate returns.
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A Billion-Euro AI Offensive
SAP has not been idle on the AI front. In mid-July, the company closed the acquisition of Freiburg-based AI startup Prior Labs, with plans to invest more than €1 billion over the next four years to transform it into a frontier AI lab focused on structured data. Earlier in July, SAP finalized the purchase of data lakehouse platform Dremio, which is expected to bolster its capabilities in agentic AI by integrating third-party data. These deals follow the 2024 acquisition of digital adoption platform WalkMe for an equity value of roughly $1.5 billion.
To fund these ambitions, SAP placed a €3.5 billion euro-denominated bond in late May, intended for refinancing and general corporate purposes. The company’s financial firepower has also been bolstered by insider confidence: in late January, CFO Dominik Asam and board member Sebastian Steinhäuser purchased shares worth approximately €1.0 million and €349,486, respectively, at prices of €169.20 and €174.00 — levels well above today’s trading range.
Regulatory Relief and Board Changes
On the regulatory front, SAP secured a significant victory in early July when the European Commission closed its antitrust investigation into the company’s maintenance and support policies for on-premise solutions. SAP avoided a potential fine but committed to a ten-year set of undertakings designed to make it easier for customers to switch between maintenance models.
There have also been notable governance changes. At the annual general meeting in early May, former Deutsche Telekom CEO René Obermann was elected to the supervisory board with over 99% approval. Pekka Ala-Pietilä assumed the chairmanship, succeeding co-founder Hasso Plattner. Separately, Udo Tschira, a member of the founding family, recently disclosed that he had crossed the 3% voting rights threshold, now holding 4.19% of SAP SE’s voting rights following new voting agreements within the family.
A Market That Offers No Shelter
The broader market environment has done SAP no favors. The DAX slipped below the 25,000-point mark during Thursday’s session, falling as much as 1.1% to 24,883, after the European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged as expected. Rising oil prices added to the gloom, with Brent crude climbing above $99 per barrel following a Houthi attack on a tanker. Within the DAX ecosystem, STMicroelectronics disappointed with its outlook, dragging down chipmaker Infineon, while automotive suppliers like Stabilus cut their forecasts.
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For SAP, this means the earnings report arrives in a risk-off environment where any disappointment could be magnified. UBS reiterated its “Buy” rating on the stock in mid-July, but the broader consensus among investors will hinge on whether the cloud growth story remains intact and whether the company can articulate a convincing narrative around its AI investments.
With the stock hovering near its yearly low, even a modest positive surprise could be enough to stem the selling pressure that has defined the past several months. The numbers due tonight will determine whether SAP’s billion-euro AI bet and regulatory tailwinds can reverse the tide — or whether the stock will test new lows.
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