SAP Shares Tumble 47% Despite €10 Billion Buyback as EU Settlement Hopes and AI Progress Face Margin Headwinds
29.06.2026 - 13:56:55 | boerse-global.de
The software giant SAP finds itself in a peculiar bind. A massive €10 billion share buyback, a string of positive analyst ratings, and meaningful progress in artificial intelligence have done little to halt the stock’s descent. On Monday, the shares managed a slight bounce to €137.20, but that remains perilously close to the year’s low struck on June 25.
The numbers tell a stark story. Over the past twelve months, SAP has lost roughly 47% of its market value, and since the start of the year the decline has been around 32%. The secondary article puts the year-to-date drop closer to 33%, a marginal discrepancy that does not alter the overall picture: the stock is in deep trouble. The 200-day moving average sits far above the current price, and even a first tranche of buybacks at an average of €161.16 per share has failed to stem the selling.
Central to the malaise is a regulatory cloud hanging over Walldorf. The European Commission has been investigating the group since September 2025 on suspicion of abusing its market power in maintenance contracts. Management is now offering concessions: greater transparency on fees, easier access for third-party software providers, and simpler switching to rival products. Brussels is weighing these commitments, and an out-of-court settlement appears likely. Acceptance would spare SAP a potentially massive fine.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Yet the antitrust distraction comes at a time when the broader industry is sending worrying signals. Accenture recently trimmed its revenue forecast, and customers are hesitating to commit to large IT outlays. Oracle spooked the market with plans to spend up to $95 billion on infrastructure. The resulting rise in hardware costs has prompted Goldman Sachs to trim its gross margin forecast for SAP in the second half of 2026.
The margin pressure is compounded by SAP’s own spending spree. Acquisitions such as Dremio and Prior Labs, along with heavy investment in cloud infrastructure, are weighing on profitability. The company is also rolling out AI-powered “Joule” assistants for procurement, with five of eleven planned agents now live for modules like Ariba Contracts and Fieldglass. But these initiatives have yet to translate into enough earnings momentum to satisfy the market.
Despite the gloom, analysts remain remarkably bullish. Jefferies reiterated its buy recommendation on Sunday, albeit with a reduced target of €210. Goldman Sachs also keeps a buy rating. The consensus of nine analysts lands at roughly €219, implying more than 60% upside from current levels. The prevailing view is that the underlying business, particularly the cloud segment which posted 20% order growth in the first quarter, retains strong fundamentals.
All eyes now turn to July 23, 2026, when SAP releases its first-half results. The company is in a quiet period, so management cannot comment operationally. A repeat of the first quarter’s cloud momentum could finally reverse the downtrend. Conversely, a miss would test whether the €10 billion buyback can provide any floor at all. For now, the stock sits in a fragile equilibrium, trading on hope and the promise of Brussels’ olive branch.
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