SAP Stages a Comeback as AI Hype Fades and Regulatory Clouds Lift
27.06.2026 - 21:38:24 | boerse-global.de
The stock market delivered a curious verdict on Friday: skepticism about the artificial intelligence boom turned into a tailwind for SAP. Shares in the German software giant closed nearly four percent higher at €136.16, snapping a prolonged slide that has wiped almost 47 percent off the stock over the past twelve months. The trigger came from an unlikely source — a report in the New York Times that OpenAI is delaying its initial public offering until at least 2027, deepening doubts about pure-play AI infrastructure.
That narrative shift is prompting investors to rotate out of narrowly focused AI darlings and back into enterprise-software stalwarts. SAP, long seen as an indirect beneficiary at best, suddenly looks attractive. The contrast was stark: while SAP climbed, Oracle — tied to OpenAI through a multi-billion-dollar cloud deal — lost roughly three percent on Friday. The closer a company’s fortunes are tied to raw AI infrastructure, the harder the sell-off.
Two structural factors are underpinning SAP’s recovery beyond the OpenAI news. The first is a potential resolution to the European Commission’s antitrust probe, which has been hanging over the stock since September 2025. Brussels is investigating whether SAP abuses its market power in maintenance and support services, effectively locking in customers. SAP has now offered concessions aimed at making it easier for clients to switch providers — including greater interoperability and more transparent pricing on re?entry fees for support contracts. The Commission has opened a feedback round on those proposals. If an agreement is reached, SAP avoids a fine that could theoretically hit ten percent of global annual revenue. Management has already said it expects no material financial impact from the probe. Separately, a complaint from Munich-based Celonis over alleged unfair preference for SAP’s process-mining tool Signavio remains pending at Germany’s Federal Cartel Office.
The second pillar is a massive buyback programme that is acting as a price floor. SAP is in the middle of a €10 billion repurchase scheme running through 2027. The current tranche — up to €2.6 billion — will last until July 2026. In the first instalment, SAP bought back roughly 16.3 million shares at an average price of €161.16, well above Friday’s close, which makes ongoing purchases at current levels structurally supportive.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
None of this is happening in a vacuum. The dramatic sell-off that preceded Friday’s bounce was partly triggered by Oracle’s revelation of capital expenditure plans reaching as high as $95 billion for fiscal 2027, sparking fears across the sector of exploding infrastructure costs. Goldman Sachs subsequently trimmed its second?half 2026 gross margin forecast for SAP, citing higher hardware expenses. The stock lost four percent in a single day on that news, though Goldman kept its buy rating intact.
Analysts are nevertheless seeing enormous catch?up potential. The consensus price target from nine research houses stands at €221.25 — roughly 60 percent above Friday’s close. Bernstein Research is most bullish at €276, while Berenberg sets a €215 target, UBS €205, and Deutsche Bank €200. Berenberg notes that first?quarter earnings improved markedly, yet market sentiment has not returned to pre?crisis levels.
Operationally, SAP remains solid. First?quarter results showed the current cloud backlog rising 20 percent year?on?year to €21.9 billion, with cloud revenue up 27 percent on a currency?adjusted basis. For the full year, management guided to cloud revenue of between €25.8 billion and €26.2 billion and free cash flow of around €10 billion. The stock, however, still trades below its 50?day moving average of €147.48 and is down roughly 33 percent since the start of 2026.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The next major catalyst lands on July 23, 2026, when SAP reports second?quarter numbers. A one?off item that flattered first?quarter cloud growth will drop out, so the market will focus sharply on the cloud backlog and gross margin — both of which will signal whether SAP’s enterprise?AI strategy is gaining commercial traction. Until then, the official quiet period is in effect, barring further management commentary.
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