SAP Stock at a Pivotal Juncture as Earnings Loom and AI Spending Under Scrutiny
Published on 07/05/2026 at 09:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Shares of SAP ended last week at €139.32, nursing a 2.14% daily decline but eking out a 2.32% weekly gain. That modest recovery, however, does little to mask a brutal stretch: the stock has shed roughly 31% since the start of the year and sits nearly 48% below its July 2025 peak. Over the past 30 days alone, the decline has exceeded 10%. With the company now in a legally mandated quiet period preceding its second-quarter results on July 23, management is barred from commenting, leaving investors to parse a mix of technical signals, macroeconomic data, and external warnings about the risks embedded in huge artificial intelligence outlays.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have flagged the upcoming European earnings season as a critical test for technology groups like SAP. The bank argues that discussions around artificial intelligence deployment and cost reduction will be among the most important valuation drivers in this reporting cycle. A particular concern: many enterprises are funding AI initiatives through entirely new budgets rather than reallocating funds from existing operations, raising uncomfortable questions about how quickly these expenses will translate into bottom-line growth.
That doubt has been amplified by an unexpected voice from the cryptocurrency world. Paolo Ardoino, chief executive of Tether, recently warned that the current model of AI infrastructure investment carries structural risks. His core argument is that large tech firms are effectively subsidizing computing power to attract users, while the underlying hardware depreciates in just three to five years. He also pointed to potential disconnects between token pricing and real costs, to profit streams that lag investment cycles, and to the threat that open-source models could erode future revenue. Although Ardoino’s critique targets the broader sector, it adds to the pressure on a company like SAP to demonstrate a clear path from its own multi-billion-euro AI push to measurable profitability.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The stock’s technical picture remains fragile. At current levels, SAP trades below its 50-day moving average of €146.45 and roughly 23% under the 200-day average of €181.08. The relative strength index stands at 46.5, a neutral reading that suggests neither oversold nor overbought conditions. The 52-week low of €130.80 was touched as recently as June 25, and the stock now sits about 6% above that floor. A key support zone is located near €135; if that level gives way, a rapid retreat to the year’s trough is seen as likely. Conversely, only a decisive break above €147 would provide a meaningful all-clear from a chart perspective.
With the quiet period depriving markets of direct commentary, attention is focused on the data points SAP will reveal on July 23. Analysts expect second-quarter earnings per share in a range of €1.94 to €2.01. Of particular importance is the cloud order backlog: in the first quarter, that metric climbed 25% on a currency-adjusted basis, and investors will look for confirmation that the pace has been sustained. Another theme is the integration of Reltio, the master-data specialist SAP acquired in May to bolster its artificial intelligence strategy. The market wants clarity on whether initial synergy effects have already been factored into the second-half outlook.
Until the numbers land, near-term share price movements will be swayed by U.S. economic releases. The June unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%, but for SAP the macro read-across is secondary. The real test lies in whether the company can convince shareholders that its heavy AI investments are on track to deliver revenue growth and margin improvement – and that the warning shots fired by critics like Ardoino are off the mark.
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