Sell-Off Deepens Even as Wall Street Piles Into SAP’s AI Bets
13.06.2026 - 16:04:26 | boerse-global.de
The software giant has lost nearly a third of its market value since January, yet analysts have rarely been more bullish. SAP closed at €141.52 on Friday after shedding more than 12% in the past week alone. That put the stock just 4% above its 52-week low, a far cry from the July peak of €266.00.
The technical picture remains fragile. The relative strength index sits at 39.4, flirting with oversold territory but not yet flashing a clear buy signal. The 50-day moving average of €149.28 still lies out of reach, and if current support levels fail, some chart watchers see a possible correction toward €119–€129. With annualised volatility of 45%, pressure shows no sign of easing.
Yet the analyst community is sticking to its guns. June has brought 38 buy ratings for the Walldorf-based group, and the average price target of €211.05 implies more than 49% upside from Friday’s close. Even J.P. Morgan, the most cautious voice on the Street, maintains a neutral stance with a €175 target — still well above the current price. The message from the sell side is clear: the share price and the business trajectory have diverged.
Behind that optimism lies an aggressive push into artificial intelligence. Early May saw the closure of the Reltio acquisition. Dremio, a US data platform, is slated to join in the third quarter of 2026. And at the heart of the new data strategy sits Prior Labs, a Freiburg-based startup specialising in AI models for structured enterprise data. SAP has signed a binding agreement to invest more than €1 billion in Prior Labs over the next four years.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The financing is already in place. Late May saw SAP place a €3.5 billion eurobond, the net proceeds of which are earmarked for general corporate purposes and future acquisitions. Meanwhile, a €10 billion share buyback programme, running until 2027, continues apace — though it has done little to stem the current rout.
Operationally, the company is navigating a quiet period ahead of second-quarter results in July. The most recent data point is strong: cloud order backlog grew 20% in the first quarter. Management stands by its full-year guidance of roughly €26 billion in cloud revenue (currency-adjusted) and free cash flow of €10 billion.
Two events next week could shift sentiment. On 16 June, partners SEEBURGER and TCG Process will demonstrate how AI-powered document allocation can cut invoice processing lead times by up to 80% using pre-trained large language models in the SAP procure-to-pay environment. The following day, SAP hosts a webinar on Germany’s mandatory e-invoicing regime, positioning the SAP Business Network as the go-to platform for buyers facing the legal deadline.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
These product narratives, however, have yet to translate into sustained buying. A move back above €150 would offer the first real technical signal, but that level still lies north of the 50-day moving average — a hurdle that feels distant after a six-month slide that has knocked almost half the value off the stock.
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SAP Stock: New Analysis - 13 June
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