Short Sellers Trim TUI Bets as Middle East Risks and a Muted World Cup Weigh on the Stock
Published on 06/11/2026 at 08:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The World Cup may have kicked off in North America, but TUI is not seeing the expected lift. Booking data for US travel remains below last year’s levels, and CEO Sebastian Ebel had already waved away hopes of a significant boost, calling the tournament a “small effect” on reservations. Industry analysts add that mega-events like this often displace normal tourists rather than generate incremental demand — leaving the tour operator to look elsewhere for momentum.
That disappointment, however, pales next to the renewed geopolitical headwinds. Fresh rocket attacks between Iran and Israel have ratcheted up tensions, sending oil prices higher and injecting uncertainty into travel plans. TUI already suffered a taste of the damage earlier this year, when a similar flare-up forced management to lower its fiscal 2026 adjusted operating profit forecast to a range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion. The company also faced a €40 million bill for repatriating roughly 10,000 guests — about half of them from cruise ships — along with lost margins and care costs.
The stock fell another 2.18% on Wednesday to €6.54, deepening its year-to-date slide to 26.76%. TUI now sits 31% below its 52-week high of €9.50 and well under its 200-day moving average of €7.71, as well as 3.35% below its 50-day line.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TUI?
Short sellers are also adjusting their wagers. London-based hedge fund Marshall Wace has trimmed its bearish position from 1.99% to 1.83% — a partial covering that may reflect profit-taking after the bet paid off, or caution that further declines are becoming harder to capture. At the same time, asset manager BlackRock Financial Management has increased its own short from 1.00% to 1.10%, signaling a more persistently negative view on the shares.
For TUI, the path to recovery does not run through the World Cup. The company is leaning on its cruise division to soften the blow, with the Mein Schiff fleet set to broadcast matches from June 11 to July 19. But the deciding factor remains the Middle East. With annualized volatility clocking in at 34.58%, TUI’s stock is acutely sensitive to external shocks. A de-escalation would ease fuel costs and restore booking confidence; a prolonged stand-off will keep the shares under heavy pressure.
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