Silver Catches a Breather at $59.69, But the Fed’s Shadow Looms Over a Record Supply Gap
28.06.2026 - 05:44:49 | boerse-global.de
A brutal 20% monthly drubbing left silver traders nursing deep wounds, but Friday brought a reprieve. The white metal surged 3.15% to settle at $59.69 per ounce, snapping a torrid stretch that had erased nearly a fifth of its value in 30 days. The catalyst was a welcome inflation report that briefly loosened the Federal Reserve’s tightening grip.
The core PCE price index for May came in at 4.1% year-over-year, exactly matching forecasts. The monthly reading rose 0.4%, a tick below the 0.5% economists had penciled in. For a market battered by rate-hike anxiety, that small miss was enough to ignite a short-covering rally. The dollar softened, and physical buyers stepped back in.
But the relief may prove fleeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his post-meeting press conference to hammer home his commitment to price stability, explicitly using the term a dozen times. Nine of 18 FOMC members now see at least one more hike before year-end, and the central bank revised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast up to 3.6%. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 61% probability of a September increase, down from 70% a week earlier, while Deutsche Bank expects moves in both September and December. The July 29 decision is shaping up as a critical test — terminal markets currently price a 78% chance of a pause.
Deficit deepens as mining supply shrinks
Beneath the monetary noise, the physical silver market tells a starkly different story. The Silver Institute projects the sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, with the shortfall widening to an estimated 46.3 million ounces — 15% more than last year’s 40.3 million ounces. Cumulative withdrawals from warehouses have reached nearly 762 million ounces since 2021. COMEX inventories alone have collapsed from 531 million ounces in October 2025 to roughly 315 million ounces today.
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Supply is the bottleneck. Roughly three-quarters of silver is produced as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead mining, leaving producers unable to ramp up output in response to price signals. Even as industrial demand moderates in some sectors, mine production is contracting faster.
Solar energy, once a powerful demand driver, is pulling back. Silver accounted for up to 29% of module costs when prices topped $80, pushing manufacturers to seek alternatives. Metals Focus expects solar’s silver consumption to fall 19% this year to around 151 million ounces, after already dropping 6% in 2025 to 186.6 million ounces. Emerging uses such as AI data centers and automotive electronics are growing but not enough to fully offset the decline. Meanwhile, physical investment demand is slated to jump 20% to 227 million ounces.
Technicals flash caution, not conviction
The chart picture does not yet support a lasting turnaround. Silver ended the week below both its 100- and 200-day moving averages, and the 50-day average sits roughly 19% above the current spot price — a massive overhead resistance. The relative strength index stands at 34.3, deep in oversold territory but still shy of a conclusive reversal signal. The gold-silver ratio closed at 69.3:1, near its highest level since the Iran conflict spike, historically a zone where silver looks cheap relative to gold. On the downside, the 52-week low near $45 remains the last major support floor.
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What to watch next
The next scheduled pivot point lands on July 30, when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases June PCE data — the first report to capture oil prices after the Iran ceasefire agreement. If it shows a deflationary effect, expectations for a September hike could recede sharply, stripping away some of the monetary headwind that has kept silver pinned.
Until then, the metal is caught between a rock and a hard place: a physical deficit of historic proportions meets a Federal Reserve in no mood to blink. Friday’s bounce may have stopped the bleeding, but it will take more than one good PCE print to heal this wound.
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