Silver Jumps 5% as US Jobs Miss Revives Rate-Cut Bets, Yet Supply Deficit Looms Large
Published on 07/05/2026 at 03:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Silver closed the week at $62.72 an ounce, notching a gain of 2.06% on Friday alone and a weekly advance of 5.09% — a sharp reversal from the long slide that has plagued the metal since January. The catalyst was a dismal US employment report that showed just 57,000 nonfarm payrolls added last month, well below economist forecasts. The miss sent the dollar sliding and reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve could soon ease monetary policy, a boon for non-yielding assets like silver.
Yet the rally comes against a sobering backdrop. From the record peak of $121.78 reached in January, silver has shed nearly half its value. Even after Friday’s bounce, the metal remains 48.5% below that high and down 13.21% year-to-date. The recovery from the October low of $45.51 amounts to a 37.82% gain, but the price still trades below all major moving averages: the 50-day ($71.67), 100-day ($75.20), and 200-day ($73.04). The 14-day relative strength index sits at 43.5, neutral territory, while annualized volatility of 50.38% underscores the potential for outsized swings.
The jobs data has reshaped interest-rate expectations. Fed funds futures now put the probability of a rate increase in September below 50%, and the dollar is headed for its steepest weekly loss since April. That environment typically lifts precious metals, and silver was no exception. Physical buying also finds support from a structural supply deficit now in its sixth consecutive year. Market watchers peg the 2026 shortfall at roughly 46.3 million ounces.
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That deficit is underpinned by robust industrial demand. Solar-panel manufacturers are using less silver per cell, but the expansion of AI data centers and rising battery production for electric vehicles more than offset the decline. About 70% of global silver output comes as a byproduct of copper, lead, and zinc mining, meaning supply cannot easily ramp up in response to higher prices — a factor that intensifies the squeeze.
To bridge the gap between western exchange pricing and Asian industrial needs, the commodity exchange Abaxx has launched a new contract in Singapore for high-purity silver, the grade required by solar-cell and semiconductor makers. The initiative aims to improve price discovery in a market where physical demand from Asia continues to soak up available inventory.
On the charts, a solid support level has formed around $61.01. As long as that holds, the short-term picture remains constructive. The next test lies between $64.00 and $64.50; a breakout above that zone could open the path toward $70. J.P. Morgan analysts forecast an average price of around $81 for 2026, contingent on a tight physical market and further monetary easing. The gold-silver ratio currently stands at roughly 64:1, historically suggesting room for silver to catch up with gold.
In the week ahead, traders will watch US economic data and Fed commentary for clues on the near-term direction of interest rates. Also critical are the inventory levels at global trading hubs such as London; any further drawdown could trigger rapid price spikes. For now, the combination of a dovish macro shift and an unrelenting supply deficit has given silver bulls a powerful — if fragile — tailwind.
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