Silver's Contradiction: Iran Crisis Fuels Oil and Inflation Fears, Sapping Safe-Haven Appeal
Published on 05/28/2026 at 07:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Silver slipped on Thursday, losing its traditional crisis premium as a surge in oil prices driven by Middle East tensions backfired on the precious metal. The white metal fell to $73.16 per ounce in one fix, a 1.52% decline, while alternative pricing put it at $73.34, representing a steeper 1.7% drop. The move caught many investors off guard: geopolitical flashpoints usually lift gold and silver, but this time, the channel ran through crude.
Higher energy costs stoke inflation expectations, which in turn reinforce the case for the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy tight. That dynamic overwhelmed any safe-haven bid for silver. The dollar added to the pressure, with the dollar index climbing to 99.288 — its highest since May 22. A stronger greenback makes dollar-priced metals costlier for overseas buyers, further damping demand.
Hormuz Tensions Dominate the Narrative
The trigger for the oil spike was a fresh round of US military strikes on Iranian facilities, which Washington said threatened shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude futures jumped roughly 2% in early trade. Reports of a possible reopening of the strait, with Iran and Oman jointly managing the waterway, had earlier offered some relief — but the White House later denied parts of that account, leaving the outlook clouded.
Behind the scenes, negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain bogged down. Disagreements persist over an Iranian proposal to impose a toll system on vessels passing through the strait, as well as US demands for the removal of highly enriched uranium from Iranian soil. Iran approved the passage of 33 ships within 24 hours, a gesture that stops short of a full reopening. For silver, every diplomatic nuance triggers a price reaction. Earlier this year, the crisis premium had propelled the metal to an all-time high above $121.
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Central Bankers Keep the Pressure On
Fed Governor Lisa Cook signalled on Thursday that the central bank should hold interest rates steady for now, but she did not rule out further hikes, citing tariffs, the Iran conflict, and AI-driven investment surges as lingering inflation risks. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson echoed that stance, calling the current policy posture appropriate as long as price pressures persist. Market participants are now focused on Friday’s PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
The hawkish tone weighed across the precious metals complex. Gold shed 0.8%, platinum fell 0.5%, and palladium lost 0.7%. Silver took the heaviest hit, underscoring that geopolitics does not automatically boost safe-haven assets — the transmission mechanism matters more.
Physical Market Sends Mixed Signals
Beyond the geopolitical noise, the fundamental picture for silver is nuanced. Mine production is on the rise, with global output expected to increase 1% to 820 million ounces by 2026 — the highest in a decade. Mexico is leading the expansion. Yet on the demand side, the story splits: solar manufacturers are cutting silver usage per panel, potentially dragging photovoltaic demand down 19%, while investor appetite for coins and bars is forecast to jump roughly 18% as buyers seek refuge from persistent inflation and shifting rate expectations.
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Technically, the weekly support level at $73.23 has already been breached intraday, raising the risk of a test of the 200-day moving average, which sits near $65.61. That would mark a significant deterioration in the chart picture. Still, a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit and steadily shrinking inventories in London and Shanghai argue against a straightforward downtrend.
For the near term, however, politics sets the pace. Until the Hormuz talks deliver a clear outcome or the Fed signals a softer stance, any rebound in silver is likely to be met by profit-taking — and another jolt in energy prices could send it lower still.
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