Silver’s Paradox: 3.15% PCE Rally vs. 20% Monthly Rout — The Fed’s Shadow Trumps All
Published on 06/28/2026 at 20:44 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Silver caught a fleeting bid on Friday, jumping 3.15% to close at $59.69 per ounce after U.S. inflation data came in slightly cooler than expected. The May PCE index rose 0.4% month-on-month, undershooting the 0.5% consensus. Yet the relief proved short-lived: the white metal still finished June with a savage 20% loss, and the year-to-date deficit stands at over 17%. The rally was a mirage in a desert of rate-hike fears.
The macro headwind remains relentless. Nine of the 18 Federal Reserve members projected at least one more rate increase this year, and the CME FedWatch Tool now prices a 61% probability of a September move. Deutsche Bank is even bolder, forecasting two additional hikes — in September and December. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his first press conference, delivered a hawkish commitment to price stability, raising the central bank’s PCE inflation forecast for 2026 to 3.6%. That posture has propelled the dollar index to a 13-month high, making dollar-denominated silver more expensive for international buyers, while rising bond yields drain the appeal of a zero-yield asset.
Beneath the price action, the physical market is telling a different story. The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026, widening by 15% to 46.3 million ounces. COMEX warehouse inventories have collapsed from 531 million ounces in October 2025 to roughly 315 million ounces. But supply remains stubbornly inelastic: the vast majority of silver is a byproduct of base-metal mining, so producers do not cut output when silver’s price falls — the primary metal keeps the mines running.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
Demand dynamics are shifting beneath the surface. For years, the photovoltaic sector was the engine of silver consumption, but Chinese manufacturers Longi Green Energy and Jinko Solar are now substituting costly silver pastes with copper. Metals Focus anticipates a 19% slide in solar-related silver demand in 2026. That blow is partially softened by the AI boom: data-center buildout is gobbling up silver at an annual growth rate of up to 25%. Yet the combined effect still leaves a structural deficit that, on its own, cannot outweigh the gravitational pull of tightening monetary policy.
Chart watchers see a market at a critical juncture. The RSI stands at 34, flirting with oversold territory. Last week’s intraday low of $55.62 tested the $55.29 support, while the primary floor sits at $56.50. A break below that level could open the door toward $55 and eventually the key $50 breakout zone. To the upside, resistance clusters at $60.50 and $61.02, with the 50-day moving average far above at $73.48. Seasonal weakness from June may be fading, and a corrective bounce toward the $70 area is possible if the $55.29 level holds.
All eyes now turn to Friday’s U.S. jobs report. A weaker-than-expected payrolls number could revive bets of a Fed pause, offering silver room to rally. But with the rate-hike cycle far from over and the dollar king, the metal’s recovery feels more like a temporary reprieve than a reversal.
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