Silver’s Sharp Reversal: ETF Exodus Halts as US Jobs Data Triggers 6% Weekly Gain
Published on 07/06/2026 at 14:23 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
After a four-month stretch of relentless outflows, investors are piling back into silver-backed exchange-traded funds, marking a dramatic shift in sentiment. The stampede followed a brutal price rout that pushed the metal to multi-month lows, but a shockingly weak US jobs report has flipped the script. The spot price of silver vaulted past $62 per ounce by the end of last week, clocking a weekly gain of roughly 6%, and traded near $62.66 on Monday.
The catalyst was a June nonfarm payrolls print that landed well below expectations. The US economy added just 57,000 jobs, against a consensus forecast of 110,000. The Labor Department also revised the prior two months lower by a combined 74,000 positions. Although the unemployment rate edged down from 4.3% to 4.2%, the headline number sent ripples through rate expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the September meeting collapsed to around 50%, down from 66% before the data release. For a zero-yielding asset like silver, a less hawkish Fed lowers the opportunity cost of holding it and reignites speculative demand.
That dovish repricing was amplified by a concurrent shake-up in currency markets. The US Dollar Index had surged from 97.6 to 101.6 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Maxwell Warsh reinforced a tough stance on inflation, effectively extinguishing any hopes of rate cuts in 2026. The jobs data clipped those dollar gains, providing additional lift for dollar-denominated metals. Silver had plunged 14.4% in June, hitting its lowest point in months, as investors fled to the sidelines. The ETF flows reflected that panic; now they are reversing course as bargain hunters wade back in.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
Beyond the macro jolt, a structural supply deficit continues to underpin the silver thesis. Industrial demand now accounts for more than 50% of global consumption, driven by photovoltaic deployment, electric vehicle manufacturing, and the expansion of artificial intelligence hardware. The shift toward more efficient solar cell technologies like TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) is adding steady pressure on supply. For 2026, analysts forecast a deficit of 46.3 million ounces, marking the sixth consecutive year that demand outstrips mine production and recycling combined.
Additional support is emerging from India, one of the world’s largest silver markets. Since 1 April 2026, commercial banks have been permitted to accept silver as collateral for loans, a move that could bolster physical demand from the retail sector over the long term. However, higher import duties have curbed near-term inflows — May imports fell sharply. Elsewhere, Brent crude oil trading around $71–$73 a barrel, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, adds a stagflation-hedge narrative that tends to favor precious metals.
Technically, silver’s recovery still has a mountain to climb. Despite the weekly surge of over 6.75%, the metal remains down more than 7.7% on a monthly basis and has lost 13.21% since the start of 2026. It sits nearly half below its 52-week high of $121.78 set in January, though it has rebounded roughly 38% from the 52-week low of $45.51 recorded in October. The relative strength index stands at 43.5, signaling neutral territory with no overextension, while the 30-day volatility reading of 50% underscores the wild swings of recent weeks.
Key levels to watch: the $60.00 area now serves as critical support, while analysts peg the next resistance zone between $70.00 and $74.00. A sustained break above that band could unlock further upside. On the immediate horizon, US producer price index data due on 7 July will provide fresh clues about the Fed’s next move, likely injecting another jolt into the silver market.
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