SK Hynix: HBM4 Reaches Nvidia Just as Post-Listing Profit-Taking Pushes Seoul Shares Toward a Key Technical Level
Published on 07/14/2026 at 19:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SK Hynix has commenced mass production and shipments of its 12-layer HBM4 memory chips to Nvidia, a milestone that positions the company squarely at the heart of the next wave of AI infrastructure. The timing, however, could hardly be more fraught. Days after completing the largest foreign-company listing in Nasdaq history — a $26.5 billion American Depositary Receipt offering — the South Korean chipmaker’s Seoul-listed shares have been hammered by a classic sell-the-news reaction, erasing nearly 20% of their value in a month.
The stock closed at 1,845,000 won on the most recent session, down from a 52-week high of 2,987,000 won hit on June 25, representing a 38.63% drawdown from that peak. The decline accelerated after the July 10 pricing of 177.9 million ADRs at $149 each, an offering that eclipsed Alibaba’s 2014 record and gives SK Hynix a war chest of roughly 26.5 billion dollars. Proceeds will fund the first phase of a semiconductor cluster in Yongin and new packaging plants in Cheongju, equivalent to about 2.5% of total outstanding shares.
A brief rally on Tuesday lifted the stock 3.69% to 1,913,000 won, fueled in part by the launch of a suite of leveraged single-stock ETFs — the GraniteShares 2x Long SK Hynix Daily ETF (SKUU), the ProShares Ultra SK Hynix (SKHU), and an inverse 2x short product (SKDD). Market participants attribute part of the bounce to heavy trading in these new vehicles, but the rebound proved short-lived as broader selling pressure reasserted itself. The annualised 30-day volatility stands at 123.57%, a level that underscores extreme investor anxiety.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
Beneath the headline gyrations lies a fundamental debate about where the memory cycle stands. The HBM4 delivery to Nvidia’s forthcoming Vera Rubin AI platform is a clear positive, and SK Hynix commands a 58% global share of the high-bandwidth memory market. Yet a growing body of evidence suggests pricing momentum is cooling. Long-term supply contracts have locked in a portion of HBM revenue, slowing the pace of price growth relative to the broader market. KIS Securities estimates second-quarter operating profit at 60.4 trillion won — a record absolute figure, but below the consensus of 65 trillion won, raising questions about margin trajectory.
Technical indicators reinforce the sense of a market caught between conflicting narratives. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 38.3, nearing oversold territory. The 100-day moving average sits at 1,586,940.66 won, a level that bulls view as the last line of defence for the long-term uptrend. Should the stock stabilise there, the case for a renewed advance toward the 50-day average at 2,163,884.51 won remains intact. That case rests on a predicted historical memory shortage in 2027 and July’s trade data showing South Korean semiconductor exports surging 193% year-on-year in the first ten days of the month. The government in Seoul has raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.0%, explicitly citing chipmaker strength.
The bear camp points to diminishing momentum and the sheer magnitude of the correction as evidence of a broader sentiment shift. From the June record, the stock has lost over a third of its value, and while the year-to-date gain still stands at 171.30%, the speed of the decline has unnerved even seasoned holders. Critics argue that the Nasdaq listing itself may have marked the euphoria peak, and that the prevalence of pre-negotiated HBM contracts will continue to cap price upside in a cyclical downturn scenario. The extreme volatility — coupled with a rising gap between realised earnings and market expectations — makes the current valuation harder to justify, particularly if technology sentiment sour across the board.
All eyes now turn to the second-quarter earnings report due around July 22. That release will reveal whether HBM3E and HBM4 margins are surprising to the upside, or whether the “normalisation” feared by KIS Securities is already underway. For now, the stock’s fate hangs on whether it can hold above the 100-day moving average — a line that separates a temporary correction from a structural reversal in one of this cycle’s most explosive semiconductor stories.
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