SK Hynix’s Record Nvidia Supply Deal Can’t Mask a 41% Drop From Peak as Earnings Loom
Published on 07/26/2026 at 18:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers tell two starkly different stories for SK Hynix. One is a tale of historic demand: a multi-year supply agreement with Nvidia that could be worth between $500 billion and $750 billion, part of a broader $950 billion alliance between South Korean chipmakers and US technology giants. The other is a market reality check: shares closed Friday at 1,759,000 won, down 8.34% on the day and more than 41% below the record high of 2,987,000 won set on June 25. The monthly decline now stands at nearly 32%.
That disconnect has set the stage for what could be the most consequential week for the memory chip maker in years. On Wednesday, July 29, SK Hynix reports second-quarter earnings — a release that will test whether the Nvidia pact can outweigh the technical and sentiment-driven forces that have hammered the stock.
A Deal That Spans Continents and Generations
The Nvidia agreement, confirmed Saturday by a senior adviser to South Korean President Lee Jae-myung during a visit to San Francisco, locks in long-term supplies of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips — the specialized memory that powers Nvidia’s AI hardware and remains in critically short supply across the industry. The deal encompasses the construction of large-scale data centers expected to come online by 2027, with Nvidia targeting a capacity requiring two gigawatts of power.
SK Telecom, a subsidiary of SK Hynix, will build a cloud business around Nvidia’s Vera Rubin systems. Nvidia Vice President Raj Mirpuri also confirmed joint development of SK Hynix’s next memory generation. President Lee and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang personally negotiated the terms.
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The pact extends beyond SK Hynix alone. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, working with US technology companies including Nvidia, OpenAI and Anthropic, are building a memory chip partnership valued at $950 billion. The announcement came during an AI summit in San Francisco that Lee attended.
For SK Hynix, the deal cements its position as the linchpin of the AI memory supply chain — even as competition in the HBM market intensifies.
What Drove the Sell-Off
Three distinct forces converged to produce Friday’s rout, and none of them had anything to do with the Nvidia agreement’s fundamentals.
First, Alphabet’s latest earnings report triggered sector-wide profit-taking in AI stocks, dragging the entire semiconductor complex lower. Second, a Seoul court ordered SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won to pay a divorce settlement worth nearly $1 billion, raising governance questions that rattled retail investors. Third, and perhaps most critically for near-term price action, the exchange window between SK Hynix’s US-traded ADRs and its Korean shares opens on July 29. That mechanism is already compressing the ADR premium and generating additional selling pressure in Seoul.
The broader sell-off in South Korean memory chip stocks was set off days earlier by a single analyst note from Seoul, which triggered the largest single-day loss in SK Hynix’s history and rippled through the entire sector. The episode has prompted regulatory action: South Korea’s financial watchdog is tightening rules on leveraged single-stock ETFs, raising the minimum cash deposit requirement from 3 million won to 30 million won for retail traders, in an effort to curb speculative behavior that amplifies volatility.
“The long-term outlook for memory chip makers remains intact,” said Jung In Yun, founder of Fibonacci Asset Management, suggesting the current weakness is more about positioning than fundamentals.
The Numbers That Matter
The 14-day relative strength index sits at 40.1 — near oversold territory but not yet flashing a definitive buy signal. The annualized 30-day volatility of 118.27% underscores just how turbulent trading has become since the stock’s peak.
Consensus estimates from 14 local banks project an operating profit of 64.1 trillion won for the second quarter, with revenue of 84.1 trillion won driven by demand for HBM3E and HBM4 chips. If those figures materialize, SK Hynix’s first-half 2026 operating profit would exceed 100 trillion won for the first time — a milestone that would validate the profitability of its specialized AI memory business.
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The company also plans to invest $26.5 billion in next-generation production facilities, a capital commitment that investors will want to hear more about during the earnings call.
A Defining Week
Wednesday’s report arrives just days after the Nvidia deal was finalized, giving management an unusually direct opportunity to connect the new supply commitments with near-term guidance. The earnings call will need to address two questions: Does the outlook confirm the deal’s revenue impact? And how does the board plan to fund the $26.5 billion investment program?
Chart watchers see no immediate relief. The RSI at 40.1 leaves room for further downside before the stock enters oversold territory. The volatility numbers suggest that even with a historic supply agreement in hand, SK Hynix remains at the mercy of technical market mechanics, retail trading patterns and the broader AI sentiment cycle.
The earnings report won’t just clarify second-quarter results. It will show whether the Nvidia pact can overcome the governance concerns, ADR arbitrage pressure and profit-taking that have turned one of the year’s biggest winners into a 41% loser from its peak.
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SK Hynix Stock: New Analysis - 26 July
Fresh SK Hynix information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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