SoftBank's Dual AI Push: Robotics Deals Intensify as Stock Takes a 13% Dive
04.06.2026 - 16:25:58 | boerse-global.de
The yen for artificial intelligence has turned into a double-edged sword for SoftBank. After a stunning rally that saw shares climb roughly 70% since the start of the year and overtake Toyota as Japan's most valuable listed company, investors abruptly cashed out. The stock crashed 13.26% on Thursday to €39.30, a painful reversal from Wednesday's close of €45.30. The sell-off wiped out weeks of gains, though the stock remains 26.53% higher over 30 days.
What drove the sudden exit? Weak tech cues provided the trigger, but the underlying cause is a growing unease about the sheer scale of SoftBank's ambitions. The group is pouring capital into both digital AI infrastructure and robotics — a two-front war that forces it to carry heavy debt while betting on technologies that may take years to pay off.
A €75 billion French wager and its debt shadow
The largest single commitment is the French AI data-centre project, where SoftBank has pledged up to €75 billion for 5 gigawatts of capacity. The first phase, covering 3.1 GW and due by 2031, is locked in at €45 billion. A further €30 billion for expansions remains optional, but the market is already pricing in the risk.
Debt is the flashpoint. SoftBank raised a $40 billion bridge loan to bolster its stake in OpenAI, while its standalone interest-bearing debt stood at roughly ÂĄ16.3 trillion (about $104 billion) at the end of 2025. With interest rates uncertain and the AI hype cycle prone to sudden chill, the group's leverage is a vulnerability that profit-takers are quick to exploit. "A normal breather" is how one strategist described the sell-off, but the annualised 30-day volatility of 112.82% tells a different story.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank?
Robotik: $800 million for a German startup and a new IPO vehicle
While the market digested the French bet, SoftBank quietly advanced its physical AI play. It is negotiating a $300 million+ stake in a $800 million funding round for Agile Robots, a Munich-based start-up that became Germany's first robotics unicorn after a Series C led by SoftBank in 2021. Agile Robots develops humanoids, robotic arms and warehouse bots; its flagship humanoid Agile ONE was recently accepted into the NVIDIA Cosmos Coalition. The company now employs 3,200 staff across Germany, China and India.
This investment complements SoftBank's $5.375 billion acquisition of ABB's robotics division in October 2025. ABB provides mass-production capabilities; Agile Robots brings perception and fine manipulation — the so-called "embodied intelligence" that bridges the gap between factory automation and flexible AI.
Separately, SoftBank is forming a new entity called Roze, designed to build data centres using heavy automation. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mizuho and Morgan Stanley have been mandated to prepare a US IPO. The robotics sector is attracting record capital: global investments reached $27.6 billion in 2025, according to PitchBook, more than double the previous year. Goldman Sachs has raised its 2035 forecast for humanoid robotics from $6 billion to $38 billion, while Morgan Stanley sees a potential $5 trillion market by 2050.
Portfolio fine-tuning and the road to June 24
To free up cash for these big-ticket moves, SoftBank is reshuffling its portfolio. Its SVF II Lightbulb unit sold a 3.25% stake in Indian eyewear retailer Lenskart in a block deal worth 2,873 crore rupees. After the sale, SoftBank still holds 9.88% of Lenskart. In a separate move, PayPay — SoftBank's digital payments subsidiary — agreed on June 4 to acquire 70.2% of T&D Financial Life Insurance from T&D Holdings, integrating life insurance into the PayPay ecosystem.
SoftBank at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Technically, Thursday's plunge reset a key momentum indicator. The 14-day relative strength index fell to 54.9, neutral territory, after having been near 67 just days earlier — close to overbought levels. That suggests the selling may have flushed out some froth, but the 30-day volatility above 100% underscores how quickly sentiment can shift.
All eyes now turn to SoftBank's 46th annual general meeting on June 24. Dividend payment is scheduled for June 30. The board will face tough questions on financing strategy, debt management and the pace of AI and robotics deployment. Until then, every capital markets headline — be it a new investment, an IPO filing or a debt placement — is likely to move the stock with equal ferocity.
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