SoftBank's Record Rally Powers Past Toyota and into France, But Deutsche Bank Halts the Momentum
04.06.2026 - 06:04:13 | boerse-global.de
SoftBank Group completed a historic power shift in Tokyo on Wednesday, overtaking Toyota Motor to become Japan's most valuable publicly traded company for the first time in more than two decades. The milestone capped a 14% surge to an all-time high, pushing the group's market capitalization above 48.8 trillion yen — or roughly $305 billion — while Toyota shed 4.5% and fell to around 45.9 trillion yen.
Yet even as the stock hit fresh records, a note from Deutsche Bank issued the day before served as a cautionary counterpoint. The German lender downgraded SoftBank from "Buy" to "Hold" on June 2, nudging its price target up marginally to 8,700 yen from 8,600 yen. The message was unambiguous: after a blistering 30-day run of roughly 47% in German trading, the near-term upside is now limited.
The French megaproject that electrified markets
The catalyst for Wednesday's jump was an announcement by CEO Masayoshi Son in Paris, unveiling Europe's largest artificial intelligence investment program to date. At least 75 billion euros will flow into AI data center capacity in France, with a target of 5 gigawatts of power. The first tranche of 45 billion euros is earmarked to deliver 3.1 GW by 2031. Son described the AI revolution as potentially 50 times bigger than the dot-com boom, and the political backing is substantial: French President Macron has invited OpenAI chief Sam Altman to the G7 summit in mid-June.
By comparison, other AI investments unveiled in France — including 7.5 billion euros from Bpifrance and MGX and 2 billion euros from Salesforce — look modest.
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A rare venture win with Lenskart
Alongside the expansion drive, SoftBank is harvesting profits from its portfolio. Vision Fund II executed a block deal on June 3, selling a 3.25% stake in Indian eyewear retailer Lenskart. The 56.5 million shares changed hands at 508.55 Indian rupees each, totaling roughly $300 million. Buyers included Goldman Sachs, Fidelity, Société Générale, and Indian institutional funds. SoftBank's holding dropped from 13.13% to 9.88%, but the return was a standout: 5.4 times the original investment — a welcome success amid a venture portfolio that has also suffered high-profile stumbles.
Technicals flash overheated
The rally has left the stock trading far above what conventional valuation models suggest. The 14-day relative strength index stood at 67.3 on Tuesday, just shy of the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions, while the annualized volatility over the past 30 days clocked in at 104.32%. In Tokyo, shares closed at 8,315 yen on June 3, after trading in a range of 8,180 to 8,800 yen. On the German market, the stock settled at 45.30 euros, down 3.68% on the day but still up 14.79% over the past week.
The median price target among 19 analysts covering the stock is 6,829 yen — more than 21% below the current level. Even a narrative-based fair value estimate, which factors in SoftBank's AI and robotics exposure, comes in at 4,498.7 yen. The consensus rating remains a "Buy," but the gap between price and target is unusually wide.
SoftBank's payment ambitions in Japan
While the AI story dominates headlines, SoftBank is quietly building scale in a different area. Its telecom arm, SoftBank Corp., has advanced to the second round of bidding for SP.LINKS, a payment services company owned by Blackstone. The next round is expected around mid-July, with Blackstone seeking roughly 100 billion yen — about $625 million. Blackstone acquired an 80% stake in the former Sony Payment Services in January 2024 for around 40 billion yen, implying an enterprise value of 50 billion yen at the time.
SoftBank already operates SB Payment Service, a major rival to SP.LINKS. Combining the two would create a powerful merchant payments platform in Japan, a market that saw electronic payments reach 58% of total transaction volume in 2025, up from 53% a year earlier. The cashless payment volume hit roughly 163 trillion yen, nearly double the level of five years ago.
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The AI portfolio at the core
The engine of SoftBank's valuation remains its concentrated exposure to artificial intelligence. Arm Holdings, which dominates the semiconductor architecture used in AI servers, now accounts for more than half of the group's net asset value. The OpenAI stake, in which SoftBank has ploughed over $30 billion, represents just over a fifth. Together, they tie the stock's fate to the durability of the AI infrastructure boom.
Two pending acquisitions add further heft: the $5.4 billion purchase of ABB's robotics business, expected to close by late 2026, and a possible $4 billion takeover of DigitalBridge, which would grant SoftBank access to data center assets worth $108 billion.
A pivotal juncture
SoftBank's next major test comes at its annual general meeting on June 24, where shareholders will assess the group's trajectory. Before that, the G7 summit from June 15 to 17 will put AI governance on the global agenda — and SoftBank, as one of the largest single investors in OpenAI, will be at the center of that conversation. The stock now sits between two powerful forces: a relentlessly bullish AI narrative and a valuation that has already left most analysts' targets behind.
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