SoftBank’s Strategic Pivot Gains Momentum Amid Market Volatility

While SoftBank Group shares have retreated significantly in early 2026, the Japanese conglomerate is making substantial strategic progress, underscored by a major infrastructure project shortlisted for a landmark bilateral initiative.

After a powerful rally throughout 2025, SoftBank's equity has faced notable pressure this January. Trading on the Tokyo exchange at approximately 3,851 yen, the stock reflects a decline of roughly 13.4% since the start of the year. This pullback follows a 4:1 stock split that took effect at the turn of the year.

The current correction comes after shares reached a peak of around 22,255 yen per share (pre-split) in November 2025, representing a fourfold increase from the lows of April 2025. A considerable portion of those gains has been relinquished in the new year.

Flagship Project Tapped for Japan-US Investment Framework

This market movement occurs even as SoftBank secures a significant strategic position. The governments of Japan and the United States are finalizing the initial projects under a Japanese investment program in the U.S. valued at approximately $550 billion. According to Reuters, a major SoftBank data center infrastructure venture is on the shortlist of early candidates.

Officials aim to formally approve the first project ahead of a planned spring visit to Washington by Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi. This development provides direct political backing for SoftBank's ambitious artificial intelligence infrastructure blueprint.

Key aspects of the investment framework include:
* A package comprising equity, loans, and credit guarantees from government agencies.
* Involvement from institutions such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI).
* Four meetings of a consultative panel held since December.
* Negotiations with major Japanese banks to participate in the financing alongside JBIC.
* The U.S. Secretary of Commerce will present final project selection recommendations to President Trump.

This government-supported financing could dramatically accelerate SoftBank's capacity expansion in data centers.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SoftBank?

Deepening the AI Infrastructure Commitment

Operationally, SoftBank continues to advance its AI infrastructure offensive. In early January, OpenAI and SoftBank announced a joint $1 billion investment in SB Energy. This move deepens a partnership that builds upon the $500 billion Stargate agreement with Oracle announced a year prior.

Specific plans involve:
* SB Energy constructing and operating a 1.2-gigawatt data center for OpenAI in Milam County, Texas.
* Additional multi-gigawatt data center campuses currently in the planning stages.
* Initial facilities already under construction and slated to become operational later this year.
* SB Energy being positioned as a non-exclusive preferred partner for both OpenAI and SoftBank.

These steps reinforce SoftBank's ambition to become a central infrastructure player within the AI ecosystem.

Robust Financials and Forthcoming Catalysts

Financially, SoftBank demonstrated strong momentum for the first half of its fiscal year ending September 2025:
* Net profit reached approximately 2.9 trillion yen, an increase of about 191% year-over-year.
* Revenue rose to around 3.74 trillion yen, marking growth of roughly 7.7%.
* Investment gains, operating income, and pre-tax profit all hit record highs for a six-month period.

The next potential catalyst for the stock is the scheduled release of third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on February 12, 2026. This presentation is expected to provide more detailed commentary on the performance of the Vision Fund portfolios and the status of AI-related investments.

A Fundamental Strategic Realignment

The company is executing a profound strategic shift toward AI infrastructure. In November 2025, SoftBank fully divested its stake in chip designer Nvidia, generating proceeds of $5.83 billion. These freed-up capital are primarily earmarked to fund the OpenAI partnership and the build-out of its own data center capacity.

The data center project's pre-selection within the Japan-US initiative highlights the scale of this reorientation. When combined with potential state-backed financing and SB Energy's existing large-scale projects, a capital-intensive yet sharply focused growth arena is taking shape. Further details on this strategy are anticipated during the upcoming quarterly presentation.