SpaceX Analyst Targets Stretch from $62 to $800 as Starship Setback and Share Overhang Compound Losses
Published on 07/19/2026 at 11:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The collapse in SpaceX’s stock has created a rare spectacle: short sellers are sitting on billions in paper profits, while ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood is aggressively buying the dip. The shares closed Friday at €108.40, down 5.39% on the day and a staggering 34.80% lower over the past 30 days. That puts the equity just 0.99% above its 52-week low of €107.34, set on the same day the test flight of Starship Flight 13 was aborted after four Raptor engines failed to ignite.
The abort dealt a fresh blow to a stock already in a fragile phase. Since mid-June, the market capitalisation has fallen from a record $2.64 trillion to roughly $1.63 trillion — a loss of more than a trillion dollars in a matter of weeks. The relative strength index (RSI) now stands at 34.6, signalling near-oversold territory, while annualised volatility of 93.16% underscores the extreme swings.
Short sellers have capitalised handsomely. According to Ortex, they have booked $8.7 billion in mark-to-market gains since the June initial public offering, with 49% of the free float now lent out. S3 Partners, using a different methodology, estimates the gains at $3.88 billion to $5 billion on a short position of around 192 million shares, representing a 28–30% short interest. The borrowing fee has collapsed from 14% to just 1%, a sign that shares have become abundantly available to borrow. Elon Musk took to X on 18 July to warn short sellers they would “not survive” a recovery, and doubled down the following day.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
While bears profit, ARK Invest has been buying against the trend. On 17 July — the same day the stock hit its record low — Cathie Wood’s firm purchased 147,623 SpaceX shares across four ETFs for $18.3 million, with the flagship ARKK fund alone accounting for 95,129 shares worth $11.8 million. Since the IPO, ARK has invested more than $475 million in the stock, adding exposure during multiple consecutive down days. To fund the purchases, the fund sold 26,002 Robinhood shares.
The next major test for the stock comes in August, when the first tranche of insider lock-up restrictions expires. Some 911.5 million shares, worth approximately $123 billion at current prices, are scheduled to be released after the company reports second-quarter earnings. A further tranche of 455.8 million shares (about $62 billion) will only unlock if the stock trades above $175.50. Musk’s own 42% stake is subject to a 366-day lock-up from the IPO date. The approaching overhang has already put pressure on the stock, and analysts at Reuters noted that slipping below the $135 IPO price in mid-July turned a celebrated debut into a test of confidence.
Analyst opinions remain deeply polarised. Roughly 80% of the sell-side rate the stock a buy, with an average price target of $244.50 (or $235.34 according to a separate calculation). Raymond James is the most bullish at $800, while Morningstar assigns a fair value of just $62. JPMorgan has turned cautious. Bulls point to Starlink’s operational strength: in the first quarter of 2026, the division generated $3.257 billion in revenue and $1.188 billion in profit from 10.3 million subscribers, though average revenue per user has slipped from $99 to $66. The xAI subsidiary, acquired in February 2026, posted an operating loss of $6.36 billion in 2025, dragging SpaceX to a net loss of $4.9 billion for the year.
Beyond the market turmoil, SpaceX is reportedly in talks with the US Department of Defense over a multibillion-dollar contract for AI data centres, which could provide a stable revenue stream and offset some of the AI-related losses. Meanwhile, bond yields on SpaceX debt are edging towards junk territory, signalling that even creditors are repricing risk. With a second Starship attempt scheduled for 20 July and the Q2 earnings report due in August, the stock faces two critical catalysts that could determine whether the sell-off deepens or a turnaround begins.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 19 July
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