SpaceX Faces a Defining Week as HSBC Breaks Cover and Starship Delivers a Mixed Signal
Published on 07/26/2026 at 19:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX’s stock is clinging to the edge of its 52-week low, and the next few days could determine whether it bounces or breaks lower. The shares closed Friday at €101.18, down 2.6% on the day and 6.61% lower on the week, leaving them just 3.73% above the July 23 trough of €97.54. That fragility reflects a convergence of forces — a sobering first analyst call from a major bank, record short interest, and a calendar packed with events that could rattle the stock either way.
HSBC became the first big-name bank to initiate coverage on Space Exploration Technologies on Friday, and its verdict was measured at best. The rating: hold. The price target: $115. The analysts arrived at that figure by valuing each business segment separately under a sum-of-the-parts methodology, then applying an “innovation premium” of 2x — a nod to Elon Musk’s track record of commercializing disruptive technology, benchmarked against Tesla’s first decade as a public company. Even with that generous multiplier, the message for bulls is sobering. HSBC sees revenue more than doubling to $38.2 billion by 2026, driven by Starlink and the artificial-intelligence push, but expects GAAP losses to persist until 2027 and positive free cash flow only after 2030. Getting there, the bank estimates, will require roughly $106 billion in cumulative capital spending.
The HSBC call lands against a backdrop of extraordinary bearish positioning. Short interest has hit a record, with roughly 196 million shares sold short — about 31% of the free float. That compares with just 5% to 7% at the time of the initial public offering. A short position of that magnitude against a newly listed stock is highly unusual, and it has amplified the selling pressure. The stock has now fallen nearly 48% from its 52-week high of €194.46, set in mid-June, and the 30-day decline stands at 25.71%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Operational news has done little to steady nerves. SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight on Friday — the first since the Nasdaq listing — successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, a technical milestone. But the Super Heavy booster stage was lost during a simulated landing attempt, exploding after a planned water landing in the Gulf of Mexico. The satellites themselves burned up on re-entry as planned, having transmitted data during the flight. For investors, the test confirmed progress on the Starlink front while underscoring that the launch system is not yet fully mature. The flight came after weeks of uncertainty: a previous launch attempt was aborted due to engine trouble, prompting an FAA investigation that identified four corrective measures.
Beyond the launchpad, SpaceX is also signaling constraints on its workhorse rocket. The company has stopped accepting new customers for dedicated Falcon 9 launches from 2028 onward and has halted new rideshare reservations. Production of certain Falcon expendable components, including upper-stage parts, has been stopped. Missions for NASA and the Department of Defense are expected to remain unaffected.
The real test, however, is purely financial. On August 4, SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $6.9 billion, up 47% from the prior quarter, with a loss per share of $0.28. Just two days later, on August 6, the first major lock-up period expires, allowing insiders to sell up to 20% of their vested shares — equivalent to as many as 911.5 million shares. The proximity of these two events has HSBC urging caution on new entries before August 6, warning that the combination of an earnings report and a sudden expansion of the free float could fuel extreme volatility. The stock has already swung 50% within six weeks, and with a short ratio of roughly 31%, the ingredients for a short squeeze are present — though the RSI of 33.9 suggests the stock is oversold, not necessarily ready to reverse.
The analyst community is deeply divided on valuation. Morgan Stanley sees fair value at $300, while Morningstar puts it at just $63 — a spread that captures the uncertainty around how to price a company that has accumulated $41.3 billion in cumulative losses since 2002. SpaceX recently placed a $25 billion bond offering weeks after its $86 billion IPO, and is betting heavily on AI: it has signed $82 billion in capacity contracts with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI, and is spending $60 billion to acquire the AI coding startup Cursor. Whether those bets justify a market capitalization of roughly €1.37 trillion is the question that the coming week — and the first earnings call — will begin to answer.
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