SpaceX Faces Dual Squeeze as Starship Abort Precedes Staged Insider Selling Wave
Published on 07/20/2026 at 04:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares have tumbled to a fresh 52-week low, caught between a high-profile rocket failure and the looming start of a carefully choreographed release of nearly a billion locked-up shares. The stock closed at €108.40 in European trading on Friday, shedding 5.39% on the day, and is now down 44% from the all-time high of €194.46 reached on June 16, just days after the company's market debut.
The rout has been relentless: in nine of the past ten trading sessions, SpaceX has closed lower. Over the past 30 days, the stock has lost nearly 31% of its value, wiping out roughly half the market capitalization the company built up in the euphoric days following its IPO. In U.S. trading, the stock fell 5.4% to $123.99, leaving SpaceX with a market cap of about €1.43 trillion ($1.57 trillion) — a far cry from the $2.1 trillion peak that briefly made it one of the world's most valuable companies.
Starship Flight 13 Aborted at T-Minus Zero
The latest leg of the sell-off was triggered by a mechanical failure on the ground, not a shift in market sentiment. SpaceX was forced to abort the test launch of Starship Flight 13 after four of the 33 Raptor-3 engines failed to ignite during the countdown at Starbase in Texas. Elon Musk confirmed that two of the engines need to be replaced, and a new attempt is scheduled for Monday evening. The mission was set to carry a fresh batch of next-generation Starlink satellites and to test a controlled water landing of the Super Heavy booster as well as an in-space reignition of the upper stage.
For investors still nursing heavy losses, each failed test reinforces doubts about the company's ability to meet its aggressive timelines. The abort also threatens to slow the deployment of Starlink's newest satellites, a key revenue driver that underpins much of SpaceX's bullish investment case.
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A Staged Lock-Up Designed to Avoid a Shock
While the engine failure grabbed headlines, the more persistent pressure on the shares stems from an entirely different source: the gradual release of insider-held stock. SpaceX structured its IPO with a series of lock-up expirations rather than a single cliff, a design meant to prevent the abrupt supply glut that often follows traditional lock-up periods.
The first and largest tranche — representing roughly 20% of the restricted shares, or about 911.5 million shares — will become tradeable shortly after the company releases its second-quarter earnings. Market observers expect the report on or around August 6, though SpaceX has not confirmed the date. That would open a window for employees and select early investors to sell beginning two trading days later.
A secondary trigger could compound the flow if the stock trades above $175.50 for at least five of the ten trading days before the earnings report. With the current price far below that threshold, that extra slug of 455.8 million shares appears unlikely to hit the market soon.
Subsequent tranches of roughly 7% each are scheduled in August, September, and October. By early December, around 40% of all SpaceX shares could be freely tradeable. Musk's own stake, the single largest potential overhang, remains locked until 2027.
The limited free float — less than 5% of total shares at IPO — explains both the extraordinary volatility and the rich valuation. At nearly 49 times expected sales, SpaceX is one of the most expensive large-cap stocks by that measure. A portfolio manager quoted in the sell-off's early days noted that "the stock carries a premium valuation with very little free float, so any move in either direction is amplified."
Technical Signals and Divergent Analyst Views
The selling has pushed the 14-day relative strength index to 34.6, a level that conventionally signals oversold conditions. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at a staggering 93%, underscoring how raw news can whip the stock violently in either direction.
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Despite the carnage, analysts remain broadly bullish. According to LSEG data, 27 of 32 covering analysts rate the stock a buy, four are neutral, and just one recommends selling. But the upcoming lock-up window will test that conviction in real time: if early investors and workers hold their shares during the first sale window, it would signal confidence in a roughly $2 trillion valuation; a wave of immediate selling would suggest the opposite.
What Comes Next
All eyes are on Monday evening's second attempt to launch Starship, a test that could either provide a much-needed confidence boost or deepen the recent sell-off. Beyond that, the second-quarter earnings report — expected in early August — will be the company's first as a publicly traded entity and will be closely scrutinized for Starlink subscriber growth and details of the nascent AI data-center business. Reuters reported recently that SpaceX is in talks with the Pentagon over access to data-center capacity, a potential new revenue stream that helped shares recover some intraday losses on Friday.
But the biggest test may come later. The third-quarter report, due in late October or November, will unlock the largest single tranche — 28% of the 180-day lock-up block, equivalent to roughly 1.3 billion shares. The full 180-day lock-up period expires on December 8, 2026. Until then, shareholders are watching to see whether the stock can stabilize above its current year-low before the first wave of insider selling hits the market.
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