SpaceX Rebounds From 52-Week Low as Starship Test Delivers Mixed Results and August Catalysts Loom
Published on 07/28/2026 at 21:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares clawed back some ground on Tuesday, trading at €101.86 after touching a fresh 52-week low of €94.15 the previous session — a 1.9% gain that still leaves the stock 47.62% below its June 16 record of €194.46. The recovery follows a brutal stretch that saw declines in 13 of the last 16 trading sessions, wiping roughly $1.2 trillion in market value from the company's peak and dragging the stock below the $135 initial public offering price by more than 20% at Monday's intraday low.
The sell-off has ignited a fierce debate on Wall Street over what SpaceX is actually worth. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas argues the market is essentially assigning zero value to the company's artificial intelligence portfolio, which includes the Grok chatbot and Cursor development platform. Bernstein's Douglas Harned pushed back forcefully on Tuesday, reaffirming his "Outperform" rating and $239 price target — implying upside of more than 110% — and describing a "disconnect" between fundamentals and market sentiment. HSBC struck a far more cautious note, initiating coverage with a target equivalent to $115, below the IPO price, while valuation expert Aswath Damodaran pegs fair value at roughly $100 per share.
Starship's 13th Flight: Progress Amid Setbacks
The latest bout of volatility unfolded against the backdrop of the 13th Starship test flight on July 24, which delivered meaningful technical achievements alongside a high-profile landing failure. The Super Heavy booster experienced a hard splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico after only five of its 13 planned Raptor engines ignited during the landing burn, missing its target of a controlled touchdown. The upper stage, however, performed well: it deployed 20 production-grade Starlink V3 satellites, successfully relit a Raptor engine in orbit, and executed the program's softest-ever water landing in the Indian Ocean. For the first time, the vehicle remained intact and buoyant after reentry, with its heat shield withstanding temperatures of roughly 2,600 degrees Fahrenheit.
Bernstein's Harned called the flight a "great success" despite the booster issue, and Morgan Stanley maintained its "Overweight" rating with a $300 price target. The mixed results have done little to calm traders, however, with the stock's 30-day annualized volatility running at 64.15% and the 14-day relative strength index hovering at 33.3 — just above oversold territory.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Two Dates That Could Reshape the Stock
Investors are now laser-focused on a pair of early August events that could determine the stock's near-term trajectory. On August 4, SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings since going public, with analysts expecting roughly $6.9 billion in revenue and a loss of $0.28 per share — a sharp improvement from the $1.27 per share deficit in the first quarter. The company posted a net loss of $4.9 billion on $19 billion in revenue for the full year 2025, and added another $4.28 billion in losses during the first quarter of 2026.
Just two days later, on August 6, the first lock-up period for insider shares expires, freeing up to 911.5 million shares for trading. By year-end, the total float could balloon to 5.33 billion shares — a dramatic increase from the roughly 639 million shares currently in circulation. Short interest stands at about 30% of the free float, leaving short sellers sitting on unrealized gains estimated at $8 billion. Analysts expect the supply surge to inject additional volatility into an already turbulent market.
Institutional Investors Split on Strategy
The price collapse has produced sharply divergent responses from major institutional players. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought 124,543 SpaceX shares on Monday for $14.3 million, signaling conviction in the long-term thesis. Ron Baron of Baron Capital went further, suggesting SpaceX could eventually become the most valuable company in the world. The consensus price target from analysts tracked by TipRanks sits at $239.04, while Raymond James projects an eye-popping $800 target — implying an eightfold increase from current levels.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Regulatory Tailwinds for the Space Sector
On the regulatory front, the Federal Aviation Administration proposed a rule on Tuesday that could streamline commercial launch licensing by suspending requirements from 13 federal laws, including the Endangered Species Act and the Clean Water Act. The agency is also seeking public comment on a new Starship flight path over the western United States and additional emergency landing zones, with the comment period open until August 3. Adding to the favorable regulatory climate, the Texas Supreme Court ruled that environmental groups lack standing to challenge the closure of Boca Chica Beach during launch operations, removing a recurring legal obstacle for SpaceX's testing program.
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