SpaceX’s 100-Dollar Flashpoint: Short Sellers, Lock-Ups, and a CEO Pushing Back
Published on 07/27/2026 at 21:40 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares have tumbled into uncharted territory, hitting a fresh 52-week low of €96.30 on Monday as the stock extended its slide to a 3.32% single-day loss. The session marked the latest leg of a brutal descent that has erased nearly half the company’s market value since its Nasdaq debut in June, when the stock peaked at €194.46. At €97.88, the equity is now trading 49.67% below that high, with a weekly loss of 6.75% compounding the pain.
The sell-off has turned SpaceX into one of the most heavily shorted names on the market. Bearish bets now account for roughly a third of the freely tradable float, a figure amplified by the fact that the vast majority of shares remain locked up under insider restrictions. The annualized 30-day volatility has surged to 64.52%, underscoring the frayed nerves gripping the stock since its public listing.
A Critical Price Level Draws Analyst Attention
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has flagged a psychological threshold that many investors are watching closely. In a note to clients, Jonas observed that a growing number of market participants expect the stock to slide to the €100 level once a lock-up period for the first tranche of insider shares expires next month. At that price, he argued, the market would effectively be assigning zero value to SpaceX’s artificial intelligence business — a division that includes the Grok chatbot and Cursor coding assistant.
“Most investors we speak with are heavily discounting Grok and Cursor,” Jonas wrote, according to Bloomberg. Some are even applying a negative valuation to the AI unit, citing the heavy capital spending required and the uncertain path to profitability. Despite the bearish consensus, Jonas remains constructive, describing the gap between pessimistic sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals as an attractive entry point.
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The AI segment, which generates 350 million daily interactions and counts 550 million monthly active users, posted $3.20 billion in revenue last year. Yet of SpaceX’s three main business lines, only the Starlink satellite-internet division is currently profitable.
The Lock-Up Countdown Begins
The immediate catalyst for the selling pressure is a looming wave of insider sales. SpaceX has scheduled its first quarterly earnings report as a public company for August 4. Two trading days later, on August 6, insiders will be permitted to sell up to 911.5 million previously restricted shares — equivalent to 20% of their holdings. The prospect of nearly a billion shares hitting the market has spooked investors, even though much of the anticipated supply is already being priced in.
Elon Musk has taken the unusual step of publicly confronting the short sellers. In a post on X, the SpaceX founder warned that companies sustaining persistently high short interest face “very low” odds of survival. The message was a direct shot at the bears, but it did little to stem the stock’s decline.
Technical Signals Flash Caution
The 14-day relative strength index has dropped to 32.2, hovering near oversold territory. The elevated volatility — now at 64.53% on an annualized 30-day basis — reflects the market’s jittery response to the confluence of events ahead.
Adding to the drama, the CME Group launched single-stock futures on SpaceX under the ticker SPCX on Monday, a day when the underlying stock was plumbing new lows. The new derivatives are expected to boost liquidity but could also amplify price swings, particularly as the lock-up expiry approaches.
Wall Street’s Bullish Consensus Remains Intact
Despite the carnage in the stock, the analyst community is overwhelmingly optimistic. The average price target stands at roughly €232 — more than double the current level. Of the 32 analysts tracked by Reuters, 27 rate the stock a buy. Every major bank that underwrote the IPO — Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley — has issued a buy recommendation.
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The lone dissenter is CFRA Research. Analyst Keith Snyder slapped a sell rating on the stock shortly after its debut, setting a price target of €115. He has expressed skepticism that SpaceX can justify the $1.77 trillion valuation assigned at the IPO, telling CNBC that the company’s core rocket business may not support such a lofty multiple.
Operations Continue Unabated
While the stock flounders, SpaceX’s launch cadence remains relentless. On Saturday, the company lofted 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base, with the Falcon 9 first stage executing a controlled landing on the droneship “Of Course I Still Love You” in the Pacific. A day earlier, Starship completed its 13th test flight, this time carrying the new Starlink V3 satellites as payload for the first time.
These operational milestones, however, have done little to calm investor nerves. The August 6 lock-up expiry will flood the market with shares from the pre-IPO era, colliding with a first-quarter earnings report that will test whether the company can convince Wall Street its long-term vision is worth the wait. For now, the market is voting with its feet — and the bears are winning.
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