SpaceX’s $25 Billion Short Bet Deepens as Starship Flight 13 and Lock-Up Deadline Loom
Published on 07/23/2026 at 18:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The bears are doubling down on SpaceX. Short sellers have piled roughly $25 billion in bets against the company’s stock, pushing short interest to 32% of the freely traded float — up from just 5-7% a month ago. According to Ortex Technologies, some 360 million shares are currently on loan, representing about 56% of the available public float, and co-founder Peter Hillerberg sees no sign of profit-taking. The positions are still growing.
The aggressive short attack has driven SpaceX shares to a fresh all-time low of €97.54, with the stock now changing hands at €99.40. That marks a 1.64% decline on the day and a staggering 49% plunge from the June 16 peak of €194.46. Over the past 30 days alone, the stock has shed nearly 28% of its value.
Elon Musk has fired back. In a post on X, the SpaceX CEO warned that companies with persistently high short positions have a very low survival probability, reiterating his long-held view that SpaceX will one day be worth more than Earth itself if it achieves its goals. So far, however, the rhetoric hasn’t stopped the bleeding. Short sellers are sitting on an estimated $15.5 billion in paper profits, with the stock now trading below its IPO price of $135 after briefly touching $225.64.
A Technical Milestone With High Stakes
The selling pressure arrives just as SpaceX prepares for a pivotal moment in its launch program. The 13th test flight of the Starship system is scheduled for Thursday evening, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 17:45 local time from the Starbase in Texas. A first attempt on July 16 was aborted after four Raptor engines failed to reach the required startup parameters moments before liftoff.
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This time, the stakes are higher. Flight 13 is set to deploy 20 satellites from the new Starlink V3 generation directly from Starship’s payload bay — a first for the program. The 124-meter vehicle, powered by 33 Raptor-3 engines, offers up to three times the payload capacity of the Falcon 9. If successful, the mission would validate Starship as the primary launch vehicle for the Starlink constellation, with the V3 satellites designed to communicate via laser links with ground stations in South Africa and the broader Starlink network.
AI Spending Spree Rattles Investors
While the launch team focuses on technical milestones, the finance side is grappling with a cost explosion. SpaceX’s AI division, xAI, is racing to build at least one new mega data center in Texas, following reports from July 22. The existing hub in Memphis, Tennessee, already delivers around one gigawatt of computing power, and the Texas expansion — partly through new construction, partly through converting existing warehouses — is expected to significantly boost that capacity.
The expansion follows xAI’s integration into the broader SpaceX structure and new contracts to lease computing capacity to Anthropic and Google. But the price tag is staggering. AI-related capital expenditures surged to $7.7 billion in the first quarter, roughly triple the year-ago figure. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that xAI could burn through as much as $120 billion in cash between 2026 and 2027.
Government Contracts Provide a Counterweight
Amid the bearish sentiment, there is a bright spot on the institutional side. On July 17, the U.S. Space Force announced a massive expansion of the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 program, lifting the contract ceiling from $5.6 billion to $17 billion through 2034. The number of planned Lane 1 launches has grown from 60 to roughly 170 over the ten-year period, and SpaceX, as a selected provider, is expected to capture a significant share of the additional 110 missions. The deal provides a long-term revenue cushion for the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy programs.
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Technical Signals Point to Oversold Territory
The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 31.9, flirting with oversold levels. The annualized 30-day volatility stands at 89.26%, underscoring the turbulence since the company’s record-breaking IPO.
Investors now have two critical dates on the calendar. The next quarterly earnings report is due August 4, followed closely by the expiration of a major lock-up period on August 6. Both events could determine whether the current downtrend accelerates or a stabilization takes hold. With short interest at record levels, a Starship launch that could go either way, and billions in AI spending yet to be absorbed, the next two weeks will test whether Musk’s warning to the bears — or the bears’ conviction — proves correct.
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