SpaceX’s $25 Billion Short Bet Deepens as Starship Flight 13 and Lock-Up Deadline Loom
Published on 07/23/2026 at 21:10 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The narrative around SpaceX’s publicly traded stock has turned sharply bearish, with short sellers piling on bets that now total roughly $25 billion. Yet beneath the surface of the sell-off, a more complex picture is emerging—one where deep-pocketed institutional investors like Alphabet and ARK Invest are doubling down on their conviction.
The $94 Billion Alphabet Position That Can’t Be Sold
Alphabet’s latest 10-Q filing, released Thursday, revealed the Google parent holds a SpaceX stake valued at $94.1 billion—equivalent to roughly 6% of the freshly listed space company. The position dates back to 2015, when Alphabet joined Fidelity in a billion-dollar funding round that valued SpaceX at just $12 billion.
But the vast majority of that stake is locked up. Around $80 billion is subject to short-term sale restrictions following the historic Nasdaq listing in June, while another $14.1 billion remains tied up until the third quarter of 2027. The paper gains from the IPO nonetheless contributed significantly to Alphabet’s second-quarter results, with nearly $98 billion in unrealized net gains.
ARK Buys the Dip as Retail Flees
While retail investors have grown jittery amid the stock’s slide, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has been aggressively accumulating shares. On Wednesday, ARK purchased 121,384 SpaceX shares worth roughly $15 million, following a Monday buy of 170,634 shares for $20.5 million.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The purchases were spread across several active ARK ETFs and were partly funded by profit-taking on other well-performing portfolio positions. The pattern suggests long-term conviction rather than short-term speculation.
The Short Seller Onslaught
The scale of the bearish wager against SpaceX is staggering. According to Ortex Technologies, short sellers are sitting on an estimated $15.5 billion in paper profits. The stock, which surged from its $135 IPO price to a peak of $225.64, has now fallen below its offering price.
Around 360 million shares have been lent out, representing roughly 56% of the freely tradable float. Ortex co-founder Peter Hillerberg sees no signs of short covering—positions are still growing. About 206 million shares are currently shorted, or 32% of the public float, up from 29% a week ago and just 5-7% a month ago.
Musk Fires Back
The mounting short interest has drawn a response from Elon Musk. In a post on X, the SpaceX CEO predicted the bearish wagers would fail, warning that companies with persistently high short positions against SpaceX have a very low probability of survival. He also reiterated his long-standing claim that SpaceX will one day be worth more than Earth itself—if it achieves its goals.
So far, that rhetoric hasn’t paid off for the bulls. The trade is running clearly in favor of the shorts.
Starship Flight 13: A Make-or-Break Moment
Adding to the tension, SpaceX is set to launch the 13th test flight of its Starship system Thursday evening from Starbase in Texas. The 90-minute launch window opens at 18:45 local time, after a July 16 attempt was aborted due to ignition problems with four Raptor engines.
This flight marks a milestone: Starship will carry real payload for the first time instead of test weights. On board are 20 new V3 Starlink satellites, which will deploy solar panels and antennas and communicate via laser links with ground stations in South Africa and the broader Starlink network. SpaceX is also testing improved engines and booster recovery.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Chart Signals and Analyst Views
The stock currently trades at €102.50, up 1.42% on the day, but that recovery does little to change the broader picture. Over the past 30 days, the stock has lost roughly a quarter of its value. It hit a fresh 52-week low of €97.54 today, just 5% below the current price.
The 14-day RSI sits at 32-34, signaling oversold territory. Annualized 30-day volatility of nearly 90% underscores the turbulence. Macquarie maintains an “Outperform” rating with a 12-month price target of $250, viewing the sell-off as an attractive entry point into the space and AI infrastructure sector.
The Perfect Storm Ahead
With short interest still climbing, a first earnings report on the horizon, and the lock-up expiration approaching, multiple catalysts are converging in the weeks ahead. Whether Musk’s warning to short sellers proves prescient—as it did with Tesla—or the bears continue to cash in depends heavily on whether SpaceX can deliver on its technical and operational milestones. Thursday’s Starship launch may provide the first real signal.
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