SpaceX’s $25 Billion Short Bet Faces a Make-or-Break August as Starship Delivers Mixed Results
Published on 07/25/2026 at 21:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The euphoria that greeted SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut six weeks ago has all but evaporated. The stock closed Friday at €101.18, down 2.6% on the day, and has now shed 25.71% over the past month. At current levels, the shares sit just 3.73% above their 52-week low of €97.54, hit on Thursday, and remain nearly 48% below the June peak.
The latest leg of the sell-off was triggered by Thursday’s 13th test flight of the Starship system, a mission that delivered genuine progress alongside a costly setback. For the first time, SpaceX successfully deployed 20 satellites from the new Starlink V3 generation into orbit, with the upper stage executing a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean. The V3 satellites feature improved laser-communications technology designed to boost payload efficiency.
But the Super Heavy booster once again failed to stick the landing. Only 10 of the 13 engines intended for the braking maneuver reignited during the descent over the Gulf of Mexico, and by the time of impact just five were still running. It was the second consecutive failed booster landing, prompting space analyst Tim Farrar to note that SpaceX remains “far from rapid reusability” — a concern that carries weight given development costs for the V3 program have exceeded $15 billion. In the first quarter of 2026, the space segment posted an operating loss of $662 million on $2.38 billion in investment, while research spending surged 77% to $930 million. The connectivity business, by contrast, generated an operating profit of $1.19 billion.
The technical disappointment has coincided with a sharp escalation in bearish positioning. According to S3 Partners, short interest has ballooned from 40 million to 206 million shares in a matter of weeks, representing roughly 32% of the free float and a market value of about $25 billion. Ortex data shows short sellers are sitting on unrealized gains of approximately $15.5 billion. Elon Musk took to X with a characteristically blunt warning to the shorts, calling their survival odds low.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The timing is critical. On August 4, SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a publicly traded company, with analysts forecasting revenue of $6.87 billion and a loss of $0.28 per share. Just two days later, on August 6, the first lock-up period expires, potentially releasing up to 911.5 million previously restricted shares onto the market. A second tranche of 455.8 million shares would remain locked only if the stock trades at or above $175.50 for at least five of the ten trading days before the earnings release — a scenario that looks increasingly improbable at current levels.
Analyst views on the stock are sharply divided. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas sees a further decline toward €100 as an attractive entry point, arguing that such a level effectively prices SpaceX’s AI business at zero. He reiterated his €300 price target. HSBC is far more cautious, rating the stock a “Hold” with a €115 target. The consensus sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average target of roughly €239, reflecting the deep uncertainty surrounding the young listing.
Adding to the narrative, Musk did not rule out a potential merger with Tesla during the latter’s earnings call on July 22. However, the parallel slide in both stocks means SpaceX would now need to issue significantly more shares to acquire Tesla than it would have just weeks ago — a dilution that makes the deal less appealing for existing SpaceX shareholders. The broader sell-off has also taken a heavy toll on Musk’s personal fortune, which 24/7 Wall St. estimates has fallen by roughly $600 billion from a peak of $1.3 trillion.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Despite the turbulence, SpaceX’s operational cadence remains steady. A Falcon 9 launch from California’s Space Launch Complex 4E is scheduled for Saturday, carrying another batch of Starlink satellites. And while the booster landing failed, Musk is pressing ahead with plans for Flight 14, which will attempt a “tower catch” of the Starship upper stage using the mechanical “chopstick” arms at the launch tower — a maneuver previously accomplished only with the Super Heavy booster in late 2024.
For now, the stock’s 14-day RSI of 33.9 is flirting with oversold territory, but with the lock-up expiry and first earnings report both looming in early August, volatility shows no sign of abating. The next two weeks will test whether the bears who have piled on with $25 billion in short bets are proven right — or whether Musk’s warning to them proves prescient.
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