SpaceX’s 911 Million Share Overhang Looms as CME Launches a New Short-Selling Channel
Published on 07/28/2026 at 14:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange picked an interesting moment to roll out single-stock futures on SpaceX. With the shares plumbing fresh lows and short sellers already squeezed for borrowable stock, the new instruments offer a workaround for bearish bets — and a fresh source of volatility for a name that hardly needs more.
CME Group began trading cash-settled futures on 55 US equities Monday, including SpaceX, alongside micro contracts on 22 of those names. A standard contract represents 100 shares, a micro contract 10. The minimum margin for unsecured positions is set at 15 percent of notional value, which translates to maximum leverage of roughly 6.7 times. Trading runs on the Globex platform from Sunday evening through Friday afternoon, with just a one-hour maintenance break each day.
The timing is no coincidence. SpaceX stock closed Monday at $113.50 on the Nasdaq — a new all-time low since its public listing and the 13th decline in 16 trading sessions. The intraday low touched $108.66. In European trading, the shares fetched €97.02, down from the prior close of €99.96 and barely above the 52-week trough of €95.55 hit on July 27. The stock has shed more than 50 percent from its June peak of $225.64, wiping out roughly $1.2 trillion in market capitalization — a sum that market observers note is roughly equivalent to Tesla’s entire valuation.
The selloff has been brutal for founder Elon Musk personally. His net worth has fallen from a June high of $1.45 trillion to $695.7 billion, according to reports. Insider sales of $12.4 million worth of shares over the past three months have added to the pressure.
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A Technical Success That Markets Ignored
The contrast with operational progress is stark. On July 24, Starship completed its 13th test flight successfully. The vehicle deployed 20 new-generation Starlink V3 satellites, reignited a Raptor engine in space, and survived a deliberately severe heat-shield stress test before a soft water landing. Only the Super Heavy booster encountered issues during engine reignition. Yet the stock kept falling — a sign that investors are focused on financial valuation rather than engineering milestones.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas warned that a $100 share price would effectively mean the market assigns zero value to SpaceX’s AI business. The firm maintains its Overweight rating with a $300 price target, noting that roughly 80 percent of analysts still recommend buying the stock. The consensus price target stands at $230.50 with a “Moderate Buy” rating. Wall Street Zen, however, downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell. Investor Peter Schiff called it “dangerous” to invest in the hype, while Gary Black and Ross Gerber remain bullish.
A Double Trigger for August
The real stress test arrives August 4, when SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $6.9 billion and a loss per share between $0.22 and $0.28. Two days later, on August 6, a lock-up period expires, freeing up to 911.5 million shares — about 20 percent of the currently restricted float — for trading. If the stock closes at least 30 percent above the IPO price of $135 on at least five of the ten trading days before the earnings release, an additional 455.8 million shares could become eligible. Given the current price trajectory, that scenario appears unlikely.
Only about 4.9 percent of the total 13.2 billion shares were freely tradable after the IPO, meaning any additional supply amplifies the stock’s already extreme volatility. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at 64.03 percent, while the Relative Strength Index of 31.8 signals oversold conditions — a technical setup that has occasionally preceded reversals but offers no guarantee.
Short Sellers Get a New Tool
The new futures arrive at a moment when short sellers are struggling to find borrowable stock. Nearly half of the free float was sold short by mid-July. Traditional short positions have become difficult to establish as lendable shares dry up. CME’s contracts allow traders to take long or short positions with up to six times leverage without borrowing the underlying shares.
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CME executive Tim McCourt said the contracts enable market participants to express views or hedge volatility without directly buying or selling the stock. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys noted that retail brokers are calling the launch the biggest growth driver of the year in the retail segment, with more than 35 broker partners ready to offer the products from day one. Retail investors have already poured over $500 million into leveraged and inverse ETFs on SpaceX.
With a market capitalization of roughly €1.33 trillion, SpaceX remains one of the largest publicly traded companies despite the selloff. Whether the earnings release and lock-up expiry halt the slide or accelerate it will become clear in the coming days.
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