SpaceX’s First Earnings Test Arrives With a $116 Billion Lockup and a 32% Short Squeeze in Play
Published on 07/22/2026 at 20:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares have been caught in a brutal downdraft since their mid-June debut, but the next fortnight could determine whether the selling accelerates or a short squeeze erupts. The stock changed hands at €105.80 in recent trading, down 2.36% on the day and barely 0.88% above the 52-week low of €104.88 set on July 20. That low came just over a month after the stock hit an all-time high of €194.46 on June 16, meaning the company has shed nearly half its value since its record-setting IPO.
The technical picture is flashing warning signs. The relative strength index has fallen to 34.8, a level that typically signals an oversold condition. Annualised volatility has clocked in at nearly 90%, underscoring just how wild the ride has been for early investors.
Two Dates That Could Reshape the Stock
The calendar is crowded with catalysts. On August 4, SpaceX will deliver its first quarterly earnings report as a public company, with a conference call scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern time. Just two days later, on August 6, a lock-up agreement covering 911.5 million shares — worth roughly $116 billion at current prices — expires, flooding the market with newly tradable stock.
There is a potential escape hatch built into the lock-up terms. If the stock closes above $175.50 — 30% above the $135 IPO price — on at least five of the ten trading days surrounding the earnings release, an additional 455.8 million shares could be unlocked. Elon Musk’s own stake remains locked until mid-2027 regardless of any price triggers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The lock-up expiration could dramatically alter the supply-demand dynamics. The free float is set to balloon by 142%, which would mechanically compress the short ratio from its current elevated level to roughly 13%.
Short Sellers in Musk’s Crosshairs
That short ratio has become a flashpoint. Short interest has surged to 32% of the free float, representing roughly 206 million shares valued at about $25 billion. Just a month ago, that figure stood between 5% and 7%. Musk fired a warning shot at the bears on Wednesday, declaring that companies with such large short positions face “very low” survival probabilities.
The CEO’s bluntness has not deterred everyone. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood bought 170,634 SpaceX shares on July 20 for roughly $20.45 million at an average price of about $119.85 — just before the stock rebounded 7% the following day. Combined with an earlier purchase, Wood has accumulated 318,257 shares worth approximately $38.75 million, calling SpaceX “the most important company in the history of the world.”
Starlink Remains the Cash Engine, But the Bond Market Is Wary
The earnings report will put Starlink front and centre. The satellite-internet division now counts more than 12 million active subscribers across over 160 countries, with more than 10,400 satellites in orbit as of June 2026. The new V3 satellite generation promises ten times the downlink capacity and 22 times the uplink capacity of its predecessors. A Starship test flight carrying 20 V3 satellites was scheduled for July 23, after a first attempt on July 16 was aborted due to issues with the Raptor engines.
Financially, Starlink is the only reliably profitable segment. It generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit in 2025, according to the IPO prospectus. The broader company, however, posted a net loss of $4.9 billion last year, weighed down by heavy research and development spending. Management is increasingly focused on monetising the existing subscriber base through price adjustments for specialised services such as business-jet connectivity.
The bond market is sending a more cautious signal than equity analysts. SpaceX issued $25 billion in bonds across five tranches on June 23, with maturities ranging from 2031 to 2056 and coupons between 5.35% and 6.65%. Since then, prices have slipped: the 2031 tranche last traded at 98.35 cents on the dollar, while the 2056 tranche stood at 91.07 cents as of July 17. Falling bond prices suggest debt investors are less confident in the company’s long-term creditworthiness than many stock analysts.
Analyst Optimism vs. Market Reality
Wall Street remains broadly bullish despite the stock’s slide. Of 29 analysts covering SpaceX, 23 rate it a buy, five a hold, and one a sell. The average price target stands at $243.81, implying upside of nearly 98% from current levels. The range is wide: Evercore ISI sees $230, Bernstein $239, JPMorgan $225, and Macquarie $250. Raymond James stands out with a street-high of $800, while Piper Sandler is more cautious with a neutral rating and a $156 target. On the bearish side, CFRA has a sell rating and a $115 target, and MoffettNathanson is neutral at $131.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Operationally, SpaceX continues to fire on all cylinders. On Tuesday, a Falcon 9 rocket launched 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base, marking the booster’s 23rd flight. The mission came a day after an automatic abort halted a previous attempt at the last second. Combined with the launch of the MRV-1 service satellite from Florida on the same day, SpaceX has now completed 87 orbital launches in 2026, maintaining its position as the world’s most active launch provider.
The company also secured a new partnership with xAI, Musk’s artificial intelligence firm, which will use SpaceX flight data to train the next generation of its Grok model. Separately, NASA selected SpaceX on July 16 to provide laser-communication terminals for the Orion spacecraft on the Artemis III mission, enabling 4K video transmissions from lunar orbit — technology already deployed on more than 12,500 satellites.
With earnings, a lock-up expiry, and a rescheduled Starship test all converging in the coming days, the stage is set for one of the most consequential stretches in SpaceX’s short life as a public company. The gap between Musk’s warning to short sellers and the stock’s 45% decline from its high is wide — and the next two weeks will show which direction it closes.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 22 July
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