SpaceX’s Lock-Up and Earnings Double-Header Arrives as CME Unleashes a New Short-Selling Tool
Published on 07/28/2026 at 09:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The calendar is stacked against SpaceX in the coming days, and the options market is already bracing for impact. With the company’s first quarterly report as a public entity due August 4 and a massive insider lock-up expiration just two days later, traders are now eyeing a fresh variable: the CME Group’s launch of single-stock futures on the space giant, offering leveraged bets of up to 6.7 times without the need to borrow hard-to-find shares.
The timing of the CME’s move is anything but accidental. SpaceX shares have been in a sustained slide since their post-IPO peak, closing Monday’s U.S. session at $113.50 — a decline that has seen the stock fall in 13 of the last 16 trading sessions. In German over-the-counter trading, the equity slipped another 2.95 percent to €97.01, leaving it just 1.53 percent above its 52-week low. The rout has wiped billions from the company’s valuation, which still stands at a staggering €1.33 trillion, but the selling pressure shows no sign of abating.
A New Weapon for Short Sellers
The CME Group’s new single-stock futures, which began trading Monday on the Globex platform, cover 55 U.S. names including SpaceX, Nvidia, Tesla, and Apple. Standard contracts represent 100 shares, while micro contracts cover 10. With a minimum margin of 15 percent of notional value, the maximum effective leverage sits at roughly 6.7 times. The launch is particularly significant for SpaceX, where short interest has reached extreme levels: nearly half of the free float was held by short sellers in mid-July, and the supply of borrowable shares has all but dried up.
“Market participants can express views on price direction or hedge volatility without having to buy the underlying shares directly,” CME managing director Tim McCourt said, framing the product as a solution for a market where traditional short positions have become nearly impossible to build. Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Cyprys noted that retail brokers are already hailing the launch as the biggest growth driver of the year in their client businesses, with more than 35 broker partners ready to offer the contracts from day one. Retail investors have already poured over $500 million into leveraged and inverse ETFs tied to SpaceX.
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The Lock-Up Tsunami
The real test for both the stock and the new futures market arrives August 6, when the first insider lock-up period expires. HSBC calculates that up to 911.5 million shares could become tradable, expanding the free float from roughly 4.9 percent to 11.8 percent. An additional 10 percent of locked-up shares could be released early if the stock closes at least 30 percent above the $135 IPO price on five of the ten trading days before the earnings report — a scenario that appears increasingly unlikely given current price levels.
The secondary article pegs the lock-up figure at 911.6 million shares, a rounding difference that does not alter the magnitude of the supply overhang. Either way, the influx of shares represents a wall of selling pressure that could overwhelm demand, particularly with the stock already trading near its lows.
Earnings Expectations and the AI Conundrum
SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a listed company is due August 4, with analysts forecasting revenue of approximately $6.82 billion to $6.9 billion and a loss per share ranging from $0.22 to $0.28. The wide loss estimate reflects the heavy spending in the company’s artificial intelligence segment, which generated $818 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2026 but posted an operating loss of $2.47 billion.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who maintains an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, noted that many investors currently assign zero or even negative value to SpaceX’s AI operations, citing high capital expenditures and uncertain profitability. If the stock falls to $100, Jonas argued, it would imply that the market is effectively valuing the AI business at nothing. He sees the disconnect between bearish sentiment and what he considers unchanged fundamentals as an attractive entry point. The Starlink satellite business remains profitable, Jonas added, while the rocket division continues to operate at a loss.
Starship’s Success Fails to Lift the Stock
The technical achievements of SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight on July 24 have done nothing to arrest the stock’s decline. The vehicle successfully deployed 20 Starlink V3 test satellites, reignited a Raptor engine in space, and passed a heat shield test under increased stress before a soft ocean splashdown. Morgan Stanley highlighted the clean ignition of all 33 Raptor engines and the successful stage separation, though the booster landing drew some criticism — only about five of 13 engines fired during the final landing burn.
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The stock hit new lows despite the positive news flow. Even the emerging discussion around orbital data centers, with analysts estimating costs of up to $250 billion per gigawatt of capacity, failed to shift sentiment.
Technical Signals Flash Caution
The technical picture is deteriorating rapidly. The relative strength index stands at 31.8 in the primary source and 33.3 in the secondary — both readings deep in oversold territory. Annualized 30-day volatility of roughly 64 percent underscores the extreme price swings that have characterized trading since the Nasdaq debut. The options market reflects the anxiety, with puts outpacing calls and short sellers having already booked $15.5 billion in paper profits, according to one analyst.
Whether the combination of first-quarter earnings and the lock-up expiration provides a floor for the stock or accelerates the downturn will become clear in the coming days. What is certain is that the CME’s new futures contracts have arrived at a moment when every available tool for betting against SpaceX is being put to use.
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