SpaceX’s Lock-Up Tsunami and Earnings Debut Set Up a Make-or-Break August
Published on 07/27/2026 at 13:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX has achieved what no rocket has done before — a fully intact Starship surviving a water landing — yet its stock is trading closer to a record low than to the euphoric highs of its June IPO. The disconnect between engineering prowess and market sentiment has rarely been starker, and the next two weeks will test whether the shares can find a floor or sink further under a wave of supply.
The company’s 13th Starship test flight on July 24 marked a genuine milestone. Starship 40, the first V3-generation vehicle fitted with upgraded Raptor engines and structural refinements from the Texas Starbase facility, executed a soft touchdown in the Indian Ocean and remained afloat. It was the first time any Starship had survived landing intact, a critical step toward reusability for deep-space cargo missions to the Moon and Mars. Yet the stock barely budged, closing at €101.12 — just 3.67% above its 52-week low of €97.54 hit the previous day.
That low was itself a reaction to HSBC’s debut coverage of the stock on July 24. The bank initiated with a Hold rating and a $115 price target, well below the $135 IPO price from mid-June. The call sent shares sliding as much as 6% in New York, finishing almost exactly at the new target of $115.07. In Frankfurt, the stock lost another 2.6% to close at €101.18. The monthly decline now stands at 24.73%, and the relative strength index of 33.9 signals the stock is approaching oversold territory — a measure of how deeply the sell-off has been priced in.
HSBC’s analysts dissected SpaceX into its business units and applied a double premium for Elon Musk’s innovation factor, yet still arrived at a base case that leaves little room for optimism. Even their most bullish scenario, which assumes Starship enters commercial service by 2027, yields just $293 per share. That compares with Morgan Stanley’s more upbeat Overweight rating and $300 target, and a Wall Street consensus of around $237. The bank flagged several long-shot ventures as sources of skepticism — orbital data centers, the Terafab chip project, and a lunar economy — and pointed to an operational red flag: SpaceX has begun turning away new Falcon 9 launch customers for slots after 2028 and has stopped accepting reservations for its rideshare program.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The financials behind the caution are sobering. In the first quarter of 2026, SpaceX generated $4.69 billion in revenue but posted an operating loss of $1.94 billion. Starlink remains the stable core, contributing $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit, while the AI division burned $2.47 billion on $818 million in revenue. HSBC forecasts full-year revenue will double to $38.2 billion but expects GAAP losses to persist through 2027 and positive free cash flow no earlier than 2030 — requiring cumulative capital of roughly $106 billion to get there.
The immediate pressure, however, is calendar-driven. On August 6, lock-up restrictions expire on approximately 911.5 million shares — equivalent to 1.41 times the current free float, which stands at just 4.2% of total shares outstanding. At current prices, that represents a potential supply surge worth roughly $116 billion. Short interest has already climbed to 32% of the float, up from 29% the prior week, representing about $25 billion in bets against the stock. Elon Musk has publicly warned short sellers that their positions have “low survival probability,” and the stock did stage a modest 3% rebound over the weekend after Macquarie reiterated its Outperform rating.
Compounding the tension, SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4 — just two days before the lock-up expiry. The twin events could determine whether the stock stabilizes near its lows or resumes its slide. The Starship test flight, while technically impressive, also delivered a reminder of the risks: the booster failed to ignite five engines as planned, though it did successfully deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites. It was the first test flight since the IPO, offering investors a live demonstration of the gap between ambition and operational readiness — precisely the gap that HSBC cited for its caution.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The coming fortnight will be a crucible. If earnings surprise to the upside and the lock-up wave is absorbed without a crash, the stock may have found its base. If not, the descent from the June record of €194.46 — now 48% below that peak — could have further to run.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 27 July
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