SpaceX’s Starship Booster Stumble Deepens the Gloom Ahead of a Pivotal August
Published on 07/25/2026 at 17:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares ended the week nursing fresh losses, closing at €101.18 in German trading on Friday — a 2.6 percent decline that left the stock languishing 25.71 percent lower over the past 30 days. The slide has pushed the relative strength index to 33.9, a level that typically signals oversold conditions. In U.S. trading, the stock finished at $115.07, once again trading below the $135 IPO price set when SpaceX debuted on the Nasdaq in mid-June.
The latest leg lower was triggered by a mixed outcome from the 13th test flight of the Starship system on Thursday. While the upper stage achieved a notable first — successfully deploying 20 of the new Starlink V3 satellites and executing a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean — the Super Heavy booster faltered during its return. Only 10 of the 13 engines intended for the landing burn reignited, and by the time the booster hit the Gulf of Mexico, just five were still firing. The result was a hard impact, the second booster failure in the V3 flight campaign. SpaceX had already swapped out six engines before the launch, following an aborted attempt on July 16 due to an engine issue; a subsequent try was delayed by weather.
Despite the setback, the company is pressing ahead with its goal of full system reusability by year-end. The V3 iteration of Starship has absorbed more than $15 billion in investment to date. For the next test flight, Flight 14, SpaceX plans to attempt a “tower catch” of the upper stage, using the mechanical “chopstick” arms on the launch tower to snare the returning vehicle in mid-air — a maneuver previously accomplished only with the Super Heavy booster in late 2024.
The operational side of the business continues to hum along independently of Starship’s experimental hiccups. A Falcon 9 launch from California’s Space Launch Complex 4E was scheduled for Saturday to deliver another batch of Starlink satellites to orbit.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Two dates dominate the near-term calendar for investors. On August 4, SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings report since going public. Just two days later, on August 6, a lock-up period expires for 911.5 million shares — a volume that exceeds the entire float from the IPO. A further tranche of 455.8 million shares is subject to a performance-based condition: the stock must close above $175.50 on five of ten trading days before the release date. With shares trading well below $120, that scenario looks highly improbable.
Short sellers have been circling. As of July 21, short interest had climbed to roughly 206 million shares, representing about 32 percent of the float and a market value of approximately $25 billion. Elon Musk has weighed in bluntly, warning that companies with large short positions against them face very low survival probabilities.
Analyst views remain sharply divided. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas maintains a $300 price target, arguing that the current weakness presents a buying opportunity. More than half of his valuation is tied to SpaceX’s AI business, encompassing the Grok platform and the recently acquired software firm Cursor. If the stock were to fall to $100, Jonas notes, the market would effectively be assigning zero value to the entire AI operation. About four out of five analysts rate the stock a buy, with a consensus price target near $232. Bucking that trend, Wall Street Zen downgraded its rating from hold to sell on Friday.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Even after the sell-off, SpaceX remains a richly valued name. With annual revenue below $19 billion, the company’s market capitalization of roughly €1.335 trillion equates to about 85 times sales. SpaceX is not yet profitable and has planned capital expenditures of around $40 billion for the current year. Adding to the picture, Musk hinted during Tesla’s July 22 earnings call at a possible merger with the electric-vehicle maker. But with both stocks sliding in tandem, any such deal would require SpaceX to issue significantly more shares than would have been needed just weeks ago — a dilution that is making the proposition increasingly unappealing for SpaceX shareholders.
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