SpaceX’s Starship Scores a First in Orbit, but a Booster Blunder Deepens the Pre-Earnings Gloom
Published on 07/25/2026 at 18:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
On Friday, SpaceX achieved a milestone that had eluded it for months: the Starship upper stage survived re-entry and settled upright on the Indian Ocean, intact and still transmitting data. The feat marked the 13th test flight of the world’s most powerful rocket system, yet the mood on the ground was far from celebratory. The company’s stock slid 2.60 percent to close at €101.18, dragging the shares within striking distance of a 52-week low and deepening a sell-off that has erased nearly half the stock’s value since mid-June.
The mission, which launched from SpaceX’s Starbase facility in Texas after two delays — one caused by an oxidizer turbopump issue and another by Tropical Storm Bertha — delivered genuine technical breakthroughs. For the first time, the upper stage deployed 20 satellites from the new Starlink V3 generation, which communicate via laser links. SpaceX also successfully reignited a Raptor engine in orbit for roughly 14 seconds, a critical rehearsal for future propellant transfers. The ship’s controlled water landing was the softest yet, with the vehicle remaining whole and sending telemetry after splashdown. Engineers also tested white heat-shield tiles designed to simulate missing thermal protection panels.
The Super Heavy booster, however, continued to struggle. During its landing burn over the Gulf of Mexico, only five of the 13 engines that were supposed to relight fired. The first stage hit the water hard — the second consecutive landing failure for the V3 version of the booster. NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman called the flight a validation of the program’s trajectory, noting that SpaceX knows where it is heading. The space agency has selected Starship as the lunar lander for its Artemis missions, with docking rehearsals for Artemis III planned next year and a moon landing targeted for 2028 under Artemis IV.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The mixed results did little to calm investors already on edge. The stock has now fallen 25.71 percent over the past month and sits roughly 48 percent below its 52-week high set on June 16. At Friday’s close, it was just 3.73 percent above the 52-week trough of €97.54 touched on Thursday. The 14-day relative strength index of 33.9 signals an oversold condition, while annualized volatility of more than 67 percent underscores the recent turbulence. In U.S. trading, shares have slipped below their initial public offering price for the first time since the June listing — a psychological blow that has amplified bearish bets. According to data from Ortex, short sellers have borrowed about 56 percent of the free float, with unrealized profits of roughly $15.5 billion. Elon Musk has publicly warned the shorts.
Two dates on the calendar are now dominating trader attention. On August 4, SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings since going public. Two days later, a lock-up agreement covering 911.5 million shares expires, potentially flooding the market with additional supply. The convergence of a maiden earnings release and a massive insider share unlock has created an unusually volatile setup for a stock that has already lost nearly half its value in six weeks.
Despite the rout, Wall Street remains broadly bullish. Of the 32 analysts tracked by LSEG, 27 rate the stock a buy, with a median price target of roughly $232. Morgan Stanley argues that the market is underestimating SpaceX’s artificial intelligence business and sees the current weakness as a buying opportunity. Skeptics counter that the valuation is stretched: revenue is below $19 billion, capital expenditures are expected to hit about $40 billion in 2026, and the company remains unprofitable. Whether the upcoming earnings and the lock-up expiration will shift sentiment — for better or worse — is likely to become clear within the next two weeks.
In the meantime, SpaceX’s operational tempo shows no sign of slowing. A Falcon 9 launch from California is scheduled for Saturday to deliver another batch of Starlink satellites, and Musk has already set his sights on Flight 14. After a full review of the data, the company plans to attempt a “tower catch” of the Starship upper stage, using mechanical arms at the launch tower to snatch the returning vehicle mid-air — a maneuver that has so far only been successfully executed with the Super Heavy booster, back in late 2024.
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