SpaceX's Week of Extremes: Twin Launches and Index Inclusion Clash with $305 Million Bond Losses
28.06.2026 - 03:33:20 | boerse-global.de
The week ahead for SpaceX is packed with operational milestones, yet the company’s freshly listed shares continue to wrestle with investor skepticism. After a 17% slide from its June 18 peak of $185.00 to Friday’s close of $153.23, the stock is now trading just 4.8% below its first-day closing price of $160.95 on June 12. The zone around $150 has emerged as a short-term floor, with a weekly low of $147.11 recorded on June 23, while resistance clusters near $160.
The immediate catalysts are twofold. Late Sunday, SpaceX is executing a rare double Falcon-9 launch. From Cape Canaveral, the SXM-11 mission will lift a SiriusXM digital radio satellite into geostationary transfer orbit, while simultaneously at Vandenberg, a Falcon-9 carrying 24 Starlink satellites will make its 17th flight — a reuse record that underscores the cost advantages baked into the company’s valuation. The Starlink constellation now counts 10.3 million subscribers across 164 markets, double the 5.0 million figure from a year earlier.
On July 7, SpaceX will officially join the Nasdaq-100 index, following a rule change that waived the standard waiting period for newly listed mega-cap companies. The inclusion is expected to trigger billions of dollars in passive inflows as ETFs and index funds rebalance. A preview came on June 26 when SpaceX entered the Russell indices, which boosted trading volume but knocked the stock down 2.4%.
Yet the debt market tells a more cautious story. On June 23, SpaceX issued $25 billion in bonds. Since then, secondary market prices have fallen, with spreads on the longest-dated 2056 notes widening by as much as 28 basis points. As of Thursday, book losses had reached roughly $305 million. Institutional investors are questioning the company’s heavy capital spending and its outsized reliance on Elon Musk’s leadership.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Wall Street’s valuation models increasingly look beyond rocketry. The acquisitions of AI firm xAI and coding startup Cursor for a combined ~$60 billion are being folded into earnings projections, and the Starlink business is now positioning itself as a direct-to-consumer telecom player. According to reports from the Financial Times and Bloomberg, SpaceX has told investors it plans to launch a Starlink-branded mobile service in the US, potentially competing with Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile. Separate talks with Charter Communications could see the cable operator handle part of the mobile traffic over its own internet infrastructure. Neither company has commented publicly.
Starlink’s mobile device service already counts roughly 7.4 million monthly active units in about 30 countries. The next leap comes from the V3 satellite generation, each with a terabit downlink capacity, which SpaceX plans to begin launching via Starship in the second half of 2026. A single Starship flight could carry up to 60 V3 satellites, representing a 20-fold increase in downlink capacity over a Falcon 9 launch.
Analyst coverage remains thin but positive. Ten analysts have issued ratings so far, with a consensus “Buy” and a 12-month price target of $187.80. Argus Research initiated coverage on June 26 with a “Hold” — and no target. The market capitalization stood at about $2.02 trillion on Friday, down from a post-IPO high of $2.66 trillion on June 16 but still above the $1.77 trillion valuation at the time of the IPO, where shares were priced at $135.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Whether the Nasdaq-100 entry delivers the anticipated buying pressure on July 7 depends in part on how the twin launches proceed. Technical glitches during dual missions are rare but not unprecedented. For now, the Starlink subscriber trajectory and the planned V3 rollout remain the narrative that could tip the balance between the stock’s operational momentum and its growing list of investor concerns.
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