SpaceX Shares Hit New Lows as Starship Test Looms and Lock-Up Clock Ticks
Published on 07/23/2026 at 08:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX stock has entered its most punishing stretch since going public, closing Wednesday at €101.06 after a 6.7% single-day slide that pushed the shares 48% below their 52-week high of €194.46, set just five weeks ago on June 16. The Relative Strength Index has fallen to 32.6, a level that typically signals an oversold condition, yet the selling pressure shows no sign of abating. Over the past week alone, the stock has shed 11.8%, and the monthly decline stands at 26.8%.
The timing could hardly be more precarious. Thursday evening marks the third attempt at Starship Flight 13 from SpaceX's Starbase facility in South Texas, after two earlier tries were scrubbed. The first attempt on July 16 was aborted just before liftoff when two Raptor engines needed replacement, and a second attempt on July 20 also failed to get off the ground. The stakes are enormous: the mission will attempt to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites — six of them equipped with cameras to monitor the rocket's heat shield — reignite a Raptor engine in space, and execute a controlled reentry and water landing. A successful flight would be a critical milestone for NASA's Artemis program, which depends on a functioning Starship lunar lander for the Artemis IV mission.
Three Forces Driving the Sell-Off
Market observers point to a trio of pressures weighing on the stock. First, the technical risk surrounding the Starship test itself. Second, the approaching expiration of the lock-up period for early investors. Third, a broader deleveraging wave hitting tech stocks, with retail and short-term capital fleeing the volatility.
The lock-up deadline is August 6, when 911.5 million shares worth approximately $116 billion become eligible for sale. A second tranche of 455.8 million shares will only be released if the stock closes at $175.50 on five of ten trading days before the earnings report — a threshold that looks distant given the current price levels. The first quarterly report as a public company is due August 4, with Benzinga Pro estimates projecting a loss of $0.25 per share on revenue of $6.98 billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Short Sellers Pile In, Musk Fires Back
Short interest has exploded from 40 million to 206 million shares over the past month, representing roughly 32% of the free float, according to analytics firm S3. The surge comes ahead of the first earnings release and the looming lock-up expiry. Elon Musk took to social media to warn that short sellers' survival probability is "very low," but not everyone shares his confidence.
Investor John Engle has slapped a "Strong Sell" rating on the stock, arguing that too many unproven successes — from Starship to artificial intelligence to orbital computing — are already priced in. The analyst consensus remains broadly bullish, with 23 buy ratings, five holds, and one sell, and an average price target of $243.81. But the range is staggering: CFRA issued a sell rating with a $115 target when SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, while Raymond James has a price target of $800. Macquarie maintains an "Outperform" rating with a $250 target.
ARK Invest Bucking the Trend
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has been buying the dip aggressively, pouring more than $36 million into SpaceX shares when they first fell below the IPO price. The firm's conviction in the long-term thesis remains intact despite the near-term turbulence. The annualized 30-day volatility of 90.88% underscores just how jittery trading has been since the Nasdaq debut.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Merger Talk Adds Another Layer
Elon Musk stirred additional speculation during Tesla's quarterly earnings call on July 22, floating the possibility of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX, citing growing overlap in projects like Terafab, Grok, Starlink, and Optimus. Tesla's general counsel confirmed a framework agreement, and SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said a combination could "make Elon's life easier." Investor Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management has raised his estimated probability of a merger by early 2027 to 90%. Regulatory hurdles, concerns about China, and Musk's vastly different voting power at the two companies — over 82% at SpaceX versus roughly 20% at Tesla — remain significant obstacles. Tesla itself recorded an unrealized gain of $1.01 billion from its SpaceX stake in the second quarter of 2026.
The Immediate Test
A clean launch Thursday evening with all 33 Raptor engines firing could break the losing streak and shift the narrative back to operational execution. The data from the 20 Starlink V3 satellites would mark the first real-world test of the next-generation network. But even a flawless flight may not be enough to fully offset the supply overhang from the lock-up expiry and the uncertainty surrounding the first earnings report. For now, the stock remains caught between technical oversold signals and fundamental unknowns — a tension that only the coming days and weeks can resolve.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 23 July
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
