SpaceX Shares Stage a Rebound After Starship Milestone, But a Volatile August Awaits
Published on 07/28/2026 at 19:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX stock clawed its way back from a fresh 52-week low on Tuesday, recovering from an intraday trough of €94.15 to close at €101.98 — a gain of 2.02% on the session. The turnaround came hours after the company’s 13th Starship test flight notched several technical firsts, offering a brief reprieve for a stock that remains deeply in the red over the past month.
The broader picture is far less forgiving. Over the trailing 30 days, the shares are still down 29.05%, with annualized volatility clocking in at 64.84% — a figure that underscores just how jittery the investor base has become since the June IPO. The relative strength index now sits at 35.4, hovering just above oversold territory but not yet flashing a definitive buy signal.
Starship’s Mixed Bag of Progress
The July 24 flight delivered two clear advances for the Starship program. The upper stage executed its softest-ever water landing in the Indian Ocean, remaining intact and buoyant after re-entry — a critical data point for engineers studying heat-shield performance. More importantly, the mission deployed the first batch of 20 production-grade Starlink V3 satellites, a key upgrade for SpaceX’s broadband business.
But the Super Heavy booster fell short of a clean recovery. Several of its 13 landing engines failed to ignite, resulting in a hard water landing in the Gulf of Mexico. CEO Elon Musk has nonetheless signaled that Flight 14 could attempt a “tower catch” for both stages, pending further analysis of the data.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The Valuation Debate Heats Up
The stock’s slide has sharpened a divide among Wall Street analysts over what SpaceX is actually worth. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas argues that at current levels, investors are effectively getting the company’s artificial intelligence operations — including the Grok chatbot and Cursor coding assistant — for free. The market capitalization of roughly €1.33 trillion, in his view, barely covers the launch and Starlink businesses.
Bernstein-SocGen’s Douglas Harned takes a more bullish stance. He reaffirmed his “outperform” rating and $239 price target on Tuesday, calling the recent sell-off a “disconnect” between fundamentals and sentiment. Harned sees the Starship milestones as validating the technology for upcoming NASA lunar missions, and estimates the stock has more than 100% upside from current levels.
Big Money Is Splitting on the Sidelines
Institutional investors are sending mixed signals. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood snapped up SpaceX-related shares worth $14.1 million on Monday, betting on the long-term story despite the rocky public market debut. Ron Baron of Baron Capital has gone even further, suggesting SpaceX could one day become the most valuable company on earth.
Yet the broader market remains skeptical. The stock now trades 48.55% below its June all-time high of €194.46, and the annualized 30-day volatility of 64.15% reflects a trading environment that has been anything but calm since the IPO.
A Pivotal Two Weeks on the Calendar
All eyes are now on a dense stretch of early August. Three events are likely to dictate the next leg for the shares:
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
- August 4: SpaceX’s first quarterly earnings report since going public — the market’s first hard look at the company’s financial health.
- August 6: The expiration of the initial lock-up period, freeing approximately 911.5 million insider and employee shares for sale. Analysts expect this supply overhang to inject fresh volatility.
- This week: The launch of single-stock futures on SpaceX by the CME Group, a new instrument that could alter trading dynamics and potentially amplify short-selling pressure.
The lock-up expiry is the most immediate risk. With nearly a billion shares suddenly eligible for sale, the potential for a supply glut is real — even if not all insiders choose to sell at once. The €100 level is being watched as a psychological support line, though the technical picture remains fragile.
What Comes Next
The Starship program’s path to full reusability remains the central long-term variable. Until SpaceX demonstrates the ability to catch and reuse both stages routinely, the massive capital costs of the system will continue to weigh on the valuation. The Starlink network, now with more than 10,800 active satellites, and the xAI acquisition are the other pillars underpinning the bull case.
For now, the stock is caught between two competing forces: the technical progress of Starship and the looming overhang of insider selling. The August 4 earnings call will provide the next hard data point. Until then, expect more of the same whipsaw trading that has defined SpaceX’s first two months as a public company.
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