SpaceX Shares Tumble to New Lows as Starship Delays Compound Lock-Up and Earnings Anxiety
Published on 07/24/2026 at 11:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX’s stock has hit fresh post-IPO depths, sliding to around $110.85 intraday on Thursday before staging a modest recovery to close at $103.96 — a 2.89% gain on the day. The bounce did little to alter the broader trajectory, with the shares down 23.67% over the past 30 days and now trading roughly 51% below their all-time high of $225.64 reached on June 23. At the current market capitalization of roughly $1.479 trillion, the company has shed about 44% of its peak value of $2.639 trillion, a paper loss that erased an estimated $35.2 billion from founder Elon Musk’s personal fortune in a single session.
The sell-off has been a gift to short sellers. The proportion of shares sold short has ballooned from 5-7% of the float a month ago to 32% as of last week, representing roughly 206 million shares worth approximately $25 billion. With 56% of the float — some 360 million shares — now out on loan, bears have racked up paper profits of around $15.5 billion since the June IPO. Musk, who controls roughly 40% of the equity and over 80% of the voting rights, has publicly warned that companies with significant short positions against SpaceX face a very low probability of survival.
The technical picture is flashing oversold signals. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 34.4, nearing the 30 threshold that often precedes stabilization or a bounce. Yet the fundamental headwinds are piling up faster than the chartists can parse them.
Starship Flight 13 Grounded by Weather
SpaceX’s third attempt in eight days to launch the 13th test flight of its Starship system was scrubbed Thursday evening due to unfavorable conditions at the Starbase facility in Texas. The mission, which follows an automatic abort on July 16 caused by engine ignition problems, now targets a 90-minute launch window opening at 4:45 p.m. ET Friday. Two Raptor engines had to be replaced after the earlier failure.
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The flight carries more than symbolic weight. Engineers aim to capture high-resolution ground imagery of the heat shield during ascent, particularly at the point of maximum aerodynamic pressure known as Max-Q. The payload includes 20 simulated Starlink V3 satellites, six of which are equipped with cameras for additional data collection.
Lock-Up and Earnings Collide in Early August
The operational delays are converging with a financial calendar that looks increasingly treacherous. SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4, followed just two days later by the expiration of an initial lock-up period. That event could release up to 911.5 million existing shares onto the market, expanding the float from its current razor-thin 4.9% to roughly 12% of the 13.2 billion total shares outstanding. Additional tranches are scheduled for September, November, and December.
A further 10% of shares are subject to a performance-based release: they will become tradable only if the stock closes above $175 on five of the ten trading days surrounding the earnings report. At current levels around $103, that condition appears out of reach. Musk’s own holdings are subject to a separate one-year lock-up.
The combination of the first earnings call and the lock-up expiration has amplified volatility, which stands at a 30-day annualized rate of 67.10%. Analysts remain broadly bullish — 27 of 32 covering the stock rate it a buy, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley initiating coverage at top ratings — but skeptics point to a valuation of roughly 40 times estimated 2026 revenue for a company that posted a net loss of approximately $5 billion last year. The bond market reflects the unease: SpaceX’s 6.65% notes due 2056 have fallen from 97 cents to 87.6 cents on the dollar.
Tesla Earnings Fan Merger Speculation
Musk’s other public company added a layer of intrigue to the narrative. During Tesla’s quarterly earnings call, Musk was asked about a potential merger between the two companies. He declined to discuss the matter directly, saying that “you can’t discuss the combination of companies on an earnings call” and that it would require “the proper process.” Gene Munster of Deepwater subsequently raised his probability estimate for a merger to 90%, up from 80%.
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Tesla’s second-quarter GAAP net income of $1.114 billion included an unrealized valuation gain of $1.005 billion on its SpaceX stake — less than 1% of the rocket company — which Tesla acquired this year for roughly $2.002 billion. Without that contribution, operating earnings would have been significantly lower. RBC highlighted the growing importance of the SpaceX relationship to Tesla’s valuation in its post-earnings analysis.
Government Contracts Provide a Floor
Despite the near-term turbulence, SpaceX’s long-term order book offers a measure of stability. On July 16, NASA selected the company to integrate Starlink laser communication terminals into the Artemis III mission, enabling 4K video transmissions from the Orion spacecraft. That followed a $4.16 billion contract awarded by the U.S. Space Force on May 29 for the Space-Based Airborne Moving Target Indicator program. The dual role — commercial internet provider and critical infrastructure partner for government space programs — underpins the bull case even as the stock price tests new lows.
For now, all eyes are on the launch window Friday evening. A successful flight would remove one source of uncertainty. The earnings report and lock-up expiration in early August will determine whether the selling pressure intensifies or abates.
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