SpaceX Stock: A $188 Analyst Divergence as Fed Pressure Meets AI Ambition
Published on 06/18/2026 at 17:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Two vastly different valuations now orbit SpaceX's stock, with investment banks and independent researchers drawing opposite conclusions about its trajectory. Oppenheimer has lifted its price target to $250 a share, representing roughly 30% upside from current levels, while Morningstar pegs fair value at just $62 — a chasm of $188 that reflects deep disagreement over how to price a company blending rocketry, satellite broadband, and artificial intelligence.
The trigger for Oppenheimer's re-rating is SpaceX's $60 billion acquisition of AI coding specialist Cursor, structured as an all-stock deal expected to close in the third quarter of 2026. In a note released this week, analyst Timothy Horan maintained his Outperform rating and argued the purchase marks a strategic pivot. By layering AI services — from hardware to application software — atop its satellite networks and orbital data, Horan sees SpaceX emerging as a direct rival to Nvidia and Microsoft in the digital infrastructure race. Institutional money is already shifting focus, he wrote, with the Starlink subscriber base of over 10 million users now sharing the spotlight with the new AI unit.
Yet the stock has already shed some of its post-IPO luster. After debuting at $135 on June 12 and surging more than 40% to briefly top $210, shares fell 5.2% on Wednesday to close at $191.26. The catalyst was external: the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% but signaled a possible hike later in 2026, a prospect that slammed growth names. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.45% and the S&P 500 lost 1.28%, but SpaceX’s high multiple made it particularly vulnerable. The company generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year, a fraction of its roughly $2.5 trillion market capitalisation — currently placing it just behind Amazon at $2.598 trillion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
That thin free float amplifies every move. Only about 4.2% of SpaceX shares were released for public trading in the IPO, making the stock susceptible to sharp swings in both directions. Options trading launched on June 16, with nearly 1.8 million contracts changing hands on day one. Retail investors bought a net $370 million worth of stock in the first three trading sessions, according to Vanda Research, but demand for put options has also climbed, suggesting institutions are starting to hedge. The low float combines with looming insider lock-up expirations in the coming months to add another layer of uncertainty.
On the governance front, SpaceX has appointed Roelof Botha, a Sequoia partner and former PayPal CFO, to its board. He will serve on the audit committee as the company integrates Cursor and prepares for a possible index inclusion. Starting July 6, SpaceX could join the Nasdaq 100, a move that would trigger automatic buying from index-tracking funds and provide a technical tailwind.
Morningstar, however, sees little margin for safety. Its $62 fair value estimate implies that the current price already prices in a heroic share of the global space economy, estimated at $1.5 trillion. To justify the valuation, analysts warn, SpaceX would need to capture a dominant slice of that market while simultaneously monetising its AI ventures at breakneck speed.
CEO Elon Musk has set a target of more than $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2031, driven by orbital launch capacity and AI data centres in space. Whether the stock’s current $2.5 trillion price tag already discounts that vision — and how the next few quarters’ earnings will reshape the narrative — remains the central question as bulls and bears stake out their positions.
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SpaceX Stock: New Analysis - 18 June
Fresh SpaceX information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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