SpaceX Stock Nears Its Floor as a Pivotal Two-Day Window Looms in August
Published on 07/26/2026 at 20:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The juxtaposition could hardly be starker. On Friday, SpaceX notched a genuine technical achievement, launching 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites into orbit aboard the 13th test flight of its Starship system. The stock market’s response was a shrug — and then a sell button. Shares closed the session at €101.18, down 2.6%, leaving the equity just 3.73% above its 52-week low.
The disconnect between engineering progress and market price tells the real story: for investors, the next few days are not about rocket science. They are about two dates on the calendar.
A Milestone With a Blemish
The Starship test, the first since SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut, represented a genuine step forward. The upper stage, designated Ship 40, successfully reignited a Raptor engine in orbit and executed an unusually soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean, allowing SpaceX to recover the vehicle intact for the first time. The 20 V3-generation satellites, though destined to burn up on re-entry as planned, transmitted data during their brief orbital stint, confirming the new hardware works.
But the Super Heavy booster, Booster 20, did not fare as well. Multiple engines failed to ignite during the final landing burn, and the stage came down hard in the Gulf of Mexico. The mishap followed a prior launch abort due to engine trouble, which had prompted an FAA investigation and four corrective actions. For a company whose valuation tops €1.37 trillion, the message was clear: the launch system remains a work in progress.
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The Calendar That Has Traders on Edge
The real weight on the stock, however, has nothing to do with landing legs or Raptor thrust. It is a matter of days.
On August 4, SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings as a publicly traded company. Analysts are looking for revenue of roughly $6.9 billion, a 47% sequential jump, alongside a net loss of $0.28 per share. The full-year 2025 picture is starker: the company guided to $18.67 billion in sales but a net loss of $4.94 billion, as capital-intensive bets on artificial intelligence and the Starship program chew through cash.
Then, just two days later on August 6, a lock-up agreement expires, freeing approximately 911.5 million insider shares for trading. The sheer volume — equivalent to a substantial portion of the free float — has spooked the market. Even the stock’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index failed to generate the expected buying pressure from index funds; instead, the shares dropped 7.2% on the news.
Since hitting an all-time high of €194.46 on June 16, the stock has nearly halved, shedding roughly 48% of its value. The relative strength index now sits at 33.9, deep in oversold territory, signaling that the selling has been unusually aggressive.
Analyst Views Diverge Wildly
The uncertainty is reflected in an extraordinary split among analysts. Morgan Stanley sees fair value at $300 per share, while Morningstar pegs it at just $63 — a chasm that underscores how little consensus exists around SpaceX’s long-term earnings power. The Motley Fool, for its part, has advised investors to sit on their hands until the lock-up and earnings events pass.
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SpaceX’s financial structure adds to the tension. Starlink remains the profit engine, but the company has accumulated $41.3 billion in cumulative losses since its founding in 2002. To fund its ambitions, it raised $25 billion in a bond offering shortly after its $86 billion IPO, and has committed $82 billion in capacity agreements with Google Cloud, Anthropic, and Reflection AI. The $60 billion acquisition of AI-coding startup Cursor adds yet another layer of spending.
What the Next Two Days Will Reveal
For shareholders, the week ahead condenses two fundamental questions into a 48-hour window. Will the August 4 earnings report show a credible path to profitability, or confirm that the AI and deep-space investments are still a multi-year drag? And on August 6, will the flood of newly tradable insider shares trigger a wave of selling that pushes the stock below its 52-week floor?
The Starship flew. The satellites deployed. But for those holding the stock, the real test is just beginning.
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