SpaceX Stock Sinks Below IPO Price as T-Minus-Zero Abort Piles Pressure on a Company Caught Between Rocket Science and Satellite Commerce
Published on 07/17/2026 at 16:26 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shareholders are reeling from a rare alignment of bad news: a last-second Starship launch failure, a stock price that has now fallen below its initial public offering level, and the impending release of locked-up shares that could add further selling pressure. Yet even as the market focuses on the latest setback, the company quietly rolled out a major upgrade to its consumer Starlink hardware — a reminder that SpaceX’s future hinges on two very different businesses.
The abort of Starship Flight 13 on July 16 came with just seconds left on the countdown at Starbase in Texas. An automatic shutdown halted the launch when four of the booster’s 33 Raptor-3 engines failed to ignite. Elon Musk said two engines require replacement, pushing the next attempt to the following week at the earliest. The mission had been set to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites — each with a downlink capacity of 1 Tbit/s — and to test an in-space Raptor restart for the first time. Both objectives now wait.
The market’s reaction was swift. SpaceX shares closed the day at $131.11, dipping below the $135 IPO price for the first time. In after-hours trading the stock fell as low as $125 before recovering to around $127. By the following session, the slide had extended: the stock was trading at €110.90, a loss of 3.26% on the day and a 33.3% decline over the past 30 days. That puts it a mere 2.01% above its 52-week low of €108.72. For context, the stock hit an all-time high of €194.46 in mid-June, leaving the peak-to-trough decline at 41.05%.
This is the second failure for the Starship V3 with Raptor-3 engines. In late May, a booster lost engine reignition and crashed into the Gulf of Mexico. The FAA classified that incident as a mishap on May 27 and imposed a 47-day grounding until four corrective actions were completed. Overall, Starship now has seven successful missions against five failures out of twelve attempts, and the program’s development costs have exceeded $15 billion. The delays also threaten NASA’s Artemis moon landing, which relies on Starship and is now slated for no earlier than 2028.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The selling pressure has been amplified by an unusually high short-interest position: roughly 49% of the tradable float is out on loan to short sellers, a figure that can magnify both upside and downside swings. Meanwhile, the broader market showed signs of nervousness on the same day, with other space and technology stocks declining as volatility indicators rose.
Looking ahead, the next major test for shareholders may come in early August, when SpaceX reports quarterly earnings. Around 20% of the locked-up shares are expected to become tradable after that release, with additional tranches unlocking through December 2026. Chart watchers identify $120 as the next institutional support level, with the psychological $100 mark in view below that.
Analyst sentiment remains surprisingly constructive despite the turbulence. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 27 maintain a buy rating. UBS reiterated its buy recommendation with a $210 target, while Piper Sandler initiated coverage with a neutral stance and a $156 target. JPMorgan’s Seth Seifman argued that the key variable for valuation is the cadence of Starship launches, not any single failure. Bernstein analysts pointed to Starlink as the company’s core growth driver, independent of rocket-development setbacks.
Starlink itself continues to expand. On July 15, SpaceX unveiled the Starlink V5 hardware kit: a dish weighing just 1.1 kilograms — less than half the weight of its predecessor — with dimensions of 384 by 306 by 34 millimeters. Power consumption has been cut to between 35 and 50 watts, making the system viable for solar or off-grid installations. The company promises peak speeds above 375 Mbit/s and a new Wi-Fi 6 Mini router that covers up to 2,200 square feet. Starlink generated $11.387 billion in revenue in 2025 and had roughly 10.3 million subscribers as of March 2026.
SpaceX at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Financially, SpaceX remains in the red despite strong topline growth. In 2025, the company posted a net loss of $4.9 billion on revenue of $18.7 billion. The first quarter of 2026 brought a further loss of $4.28 billion. The IPO in June raised $85.7 billion, briefly valuing the company at $1.77 trillion; the current market capitalization stands at about $1.73 trillion. The Starship program alone has consumed over $15 billion.
A successful launch attempt early next week would allow the Starlink V3 satellites to begin upgrading network capacity and provide a much-needed positive catalyst. But with the stock already brushing its 52-week low and a wave of tradable shares about to hit the market, the next few days could determine whether the slide deepens or a recovery takes hold.
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