SpaceX Stock Sinks to Fresh Lows as $120 Billion AI Spending Spree Rattles Investors
Published on 07/23/2026 at 05:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares hit their lowest level since going public on Wednesday, sliding 6.7 percent to close at €101.06 — barely a whisker above the €101.02 52-week trough set just days earlier. The sell-off marks a brutal stretch for the Elon Musk-led company, which has now shed 11.8 percent over the past week and a staggering 26.8 percent over the last month. From its all-time high of €194.46 reached on June 16, the stock has cratered nearly 48 percent.
The timing could hardly be more dramatic. Thursday evening brings the thirteenth test flight of Starship — the most consequential launch attempt in the company’s history — after two previous tries were scrubbed. The first attempt on July 16 was aborted moments before liftoff when two Raptor engines needed replacement, and a second effort on July 20 also failed to get off the ground.
The $120 Billion Question
Behind the price action lies a fundamental shift in SpaceX’s identity that has investors deeply unsettled. The February 2026 merger with xAI transformed the rocket company into a vertically integrated computing powerhouse — but the bill for that transformation is staggering. Morgan Stanley estimates xAI will burn through as much as $120 billion in cash between 2026 and 2027, almost entirely on building out new data centers.
To put that figure in perspective: SpaceX’s historic IPO on June 12 raised $75 billion. The capital demands of the AI division alone exceed the entire IPO haul by a wide margin. Already in the first quarter of 2026, AI-related capital expenditures surged to $7.7 billion — roughly triple the year-ago level. Critics argue that the expensive ground-based data center business is siphoning resources that should be flowing into the core rocket launch operations.
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Cursor Deal Adds Dilution Fears
Compounding the cash-burn anxiety is the $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the developer behind the AI coding tool Cursor. Announced on June 16 — just days after the IPO — the all-stock transaction has sparked dilution concerns. The deal significantly increases the outstanding share count, and it lands before any lock-up restrictions have even begun to expire.
Management plans to integrate Cursor directly into the xAI subsidiary and the Colossus supercomputer cluster in Tennessee. But many market participants remain skeptical about whether the hefty software premium is justified, particularly with the first tranche of lock-up expirations looming on August 6, when up to 911.5 million shares could become tradable.
Institutional Confidence Remains
Not everyone is heading for the exits. Cathie Wood’s ARK Investment purchased roughly 121,500 shares on July 22, deploying more than $36 million as the stock dipped below its offering price. The move signals conviction in SpaceX’s dual role as both a launch provider and an AI infrastructure play.
Bullish analysts point to already-secured computing contracts that underscore the revenue potential. A deal with Anthropic is worth $1.25 billion per month, while an agreement with Alphabet runs at $920 million monthly. Morgan Stanley maintains an “Overweight” rating with a $300 price target, projecting total revenue could leap from $45 billion in 2026 to $319 billion by 2030, driven primarily by terrestrial and orbital data centers.
Technical Picture Shows Exhaustion
The chart tells a story of intense selling pressure. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 32.6, flirting with oversold territory. Annualized 30-day volatility stands at 90.8 percent, underscoring the extreme nervousness surrounding the stock since its Nasdaq debut.
Market observers point to three factors driving the rout: the technical risk surrounding Starship Flight 13, the approaching lock-up expiry, and a broader deleveraging wave in tech stocks as retail and short-term capital retreats.
Starship’s Moment of Truth
Thursday’s launch carries enormous weight. For the first time, Starship will carry 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, six of which are equipped with additional cameras to monitor the rocket’s heat shield. The data will help determine whether Starship can eventually return to its launch site for reuse.
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The stakes extend well beyond a single test flight. NASA’s Artemis IV mission depends on a functioning Starship lunar lander, the Starlink V3 network expansion hinges on successful deployment, and the entire promise of cheaper space access rests on this vehicle performing reliably. The space agency is particularly focused on progress toward certifying the lunar lander.
A clean launch with all 33 Raptor engines firing on the booster stage could break the losing streak. Successful satellite deployment would provide the first real-world validation of the next-generation network. A smooth flight would shift the narrative back toward operational strength and away from dilution and cash-burn concerns.
The next few weeks remain fraught. SpaceX will release its first quarterly report as a public company on August 4, and the lock-up expiry follows just two days later. For now, Thursday evening represents the most immediate test of whether the stock can stabilize or will continue its slide toward new lows.
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