SpaceX Stock Slides to Near 52-Week Low After Starship Abort; Lockup Release Adds Pressure
Published on 07/20/2026 at 07:43 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
SpaceX shares closed Friday at €108.40, a mere 0.99% above their 52-week low of €107.34 hit just days earlier, after a failed Starship test launch erased roughly $100 billion in market capitalization. The stock's 14-day relative strength index has fallen below 35, signaling deeply oversold conditions, while 30-day annualized volatility has spiked — reflecting mounting investor anxiety since the company's June IPO.
The abort of Flight 13 on July 16 was triggered when four of Starship's 33 Raptor engines failed to ignite during the countdown. SpaceX quickly swapped two engines and made adjustments to the propulsion system. The company has set a new target date of July 23 for the next attempt, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 17:45 local time, though Elon Musk later suggested July 24 in a social media post. The mission will carry 20 upgraded Starlink V3 satellites as mass simulators, which are designed to burn up on reentry in a test of their ejection system and laser links. It marks the second flight of the Starship V3 generation and the first major test since going public.
The market cap loss tied to the abort compounds a broader sell-off. Over the past month, SpaceX stock has fallen 30.88%, leaving it 44.26% below its 52-week high. Short sellers have capitalized: with roughly 30% of the 640 million freely tradable shares sold short, they are sitting on paper profits of about $4 billion, according to reports. Musk has dismissed their chances, calling the shorts' "survival probability" very low. But a massive wave of insider shares looms. Following the first quarterly report as a public company — expected early August — up to 911.5 million shares could become tradable, valued at roughly $115 billion at recent prices. The lockup expiration is staged: 7% tranches become free to trade at 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days post-IPO, with further releases through December. Musk's own stake remains locked until June 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Analyst opinions on the stock are sharply divided. Raymond James has a "Strong Buy" rating with a $800 target, implying a market capitalization above $10 trillion. At the opposite end, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas sees a base case of $300 and a bear case of just $75. Goldman Sachs started coverage at $205, JPMorgan at $225, and Piper Sandler at $156 with a "Neutral" rating. The consensus average stands near $236. For the second quarter, analysts project revenue between $5.3 billion and $8.1 billion, with a net loss per share ranging from $0.12 to $0.42. The first quarter had delivered $4.6 billion in revenue and a net loss exceeding $4 billion.
Underlying the financial turbulence, SpaceX's Starlink business posted $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue, up 48%, with an operating profit of $4.4 billion and 12 million subscribers across 164 countries. That strength contrasts with the company's AI division, which lost $6.4 billion last year. Total SpaceX 2025 revenue reached $18.67 billion. Meanwhile, bond investors are growing cautious: SpaceX placed $25 billion in bonds after the IPO, and yields along with credit default swap costs have reportedly risen. Cathie Wood's ARK Invest added $51 million worth of shares during the recent dip. Whether the Starship test flies on July 23 or 24 could help determine near-term direction — but the bigger overhang remains the scheduled release of hundreds of millions of shares in the coming months.
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