SpaceX Wagers Its Post-IPO Stock on a $60 Billion AI Deal as Losses Mount and Lock-Up Looms
Published on 06/17/2026 at 17:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Just days after completing the largest IPO in history, SpaceX is putting its freshly traded equity to work. The aerospace company has struck a $60 billion all-stock deal to acquire Anysphere, the developer of AI coding assistant Cursor, in a transaction that tests whether its post-IPO share price can withstand the pressure of dilution, a narrow float, and a looming flood of locked-up shares.
The acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter of 2026, will be funded entirely with SpaceX shares rather than the $85.7 billion in gross proceeds raised from the IPO. The exchange ratio will be based on the volume-weighted average price over the seven trading days before completion, meaning that every swing in the stock between now and then directly affects how many new shares Anysphere’s shareholders receive. For existing investors, the risk is clear: uncertain dilution that could amplify the already precarious supply-demand dynamics of the stock.
That risk is magnified by the company’s underlying financials. In fiscal 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue but posted a net loss of $4.9 billion — a burn rate that contrasts sharply with a market capitalization that briefly surpassed Amazon’s $717 billion revenue base. (Amazon itself recorded $717 billion in revenue the same year.) In the first quarter of 2026 alone, SpaceX burned $4.28 billion on Starlink expansion and AI infrastructure, underscoring the cash intensity of its dual ambitions in space and software.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Despite the losses, retail investors have propelled the stock 56% above its $135 IPO price. On June 16, net retail purchases of SpaceX shares hit $93 million, representing 73% of all single-stock buys by that cohort on the day. Analysts warn of a meme-stock dynamic reminiscent of 2021. “This has the hallmarks of a gamma squeeze driven by an artificially scarce float,” said Charlie Bilello of Creative Planning. CFRA’s Keith Snyder maintains a sell rating with a $115 price target, implying a 46% downside from current levels. Other targets vary widely: Morningstar sees fair value at $62–63, Oppenheimer at $190, and KGI at $227 on a long-term growth thesis.
The root of the volatility is supply. Only 4% to 5% of SpaceX’s shares trade freely, a scarcity that has been exacerbated by the introduction of options trading. That thin float means even modest buying pressure can trigger outsized moves and, according to market observers, has already set the stage for a gamma squeeze. Michael Burry, who famously bet against the housing bubble in 2008, has described SpaceX as a “small space company” and a “niche telecom provider,” drawing parallels to the dot-com era. He has refrained from shorting, however, citing prohibitive put premiums.
The real stress test arrives in August and September 2026, when lock-up agreements for early investors and employees begin to expire. More than 10 billion shares could hit the market over that period — roughly 20 times the current free float. Whether the stock can absorb that deluge without collapsing is the question hanging over the Anysphere deal.
For now, the market is cheering the acquisition. SpaceX shares climbed nearly 5% on Tuesday, pushing the company’s market capitalization to $2.66 trillion and overtaking Amazon. The move into AI-assisted coding puts SpaceX in direct competition with OpenAI and Anthropic — a logical extension of the access rights it secured to Cursor’s technology back in April. But the deal’s success ultimately hinges on the stock price holding up through Q3. If it does, the dilution may be manageable. If it does not, the cost of bringing Anysphere on board could be far higher than the headline $60 billion figure suggests.
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