Tesla’s $25 Billion Question: When Will Robotaxi Miles Catch Up to the Spending Spree?
Published on 07/27/2026 at 17:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Tesla shares have shed nearly 14% over the past seven trading sessions, sliding to €278.70 — just a few percentage points above the August 2025 low of €262.00. The stock has now lost roughly 30% since the start of the year, and the sell-off is accelerating. With the 52-week floor in sight, the debate on Wall Street has narrowed to a single, brutal question: Is Tesla burning cash on a revolution, or a mirage?
Record Deliveries, Negative Cash Flow
The second-quarter numbers tell a story of two Teslas. On one hand, the company delivered a record 480,126 vehicles and posted revenue of $28.24 billion, beating analyst expectations. On the other, the cost of funding Elon Musk’s vision is swallowing those gains whole.
Capital expenditures surged 142% year-over-year to $5.79 billion, pushing free cash flow into negative territory at -$1.1 billion. Tesla now expects to spend more than $25 billion on capex for the full year. Earnings per share came in at $0.33, missing estimates by 38%, while the operating margin collapsed to a wafer-thin 1.4% — a level that would alarm any traditional automaker, let alone one valued like a tech growth stock.
The market’s verdict was swift. Tesla’s worst single-day drop since March 2025 followed the earnings release, and the stock closed last Friday at €275.35, down nearly 2% on the day. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 27.9, deep in oversold territory — but technical indicators alone won’t reverse the fundamental pressure.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?
The Robotaxi Plateau That Won’t Break
At the heart of the bear case is a stubborn data point: paid robotaxi miles are stuck. Tesla expanded its autonomous ride-hailing service to Orlando and Tampa, and now operates without safety drivers in multiple markets including Austin and Miami. Yet an independent analysis of Tesla’s own data shows the fleet added roughly 900,000 paid miles in the second quarter — exactly the same as in the first quarter.
The picture gets worse on closer inspection. Within the quarter, about 500,000 of those miles were added in April alone. The pace then slowed to roughly 200,000 miles per month in both May and June. For a company spending $25 billion this year, that trajectory is hard to defend.
Tesla has never disclosed the total size of its robotaxi fleet, the number of paid rides, intervention rates, or per-ride economics. That opacity is becoming a liability. Musk said in July 2025 that Tesla could reach half the US population by year-end, pending regulatory approvals — but the actual rollout has consistently lagged his timelines.
Cybercab and Optimus: The Cash-Eating Twins
The company is doubling down on two products that generate almost no revenue today. Production of the Cybercab, the purpose-built robotaxi vehicle, has begun, and test drives on public roads started in the same quarter. Tesla is also building assembly lines for the Optimus humanoid robot.
Both projects consume liquidity at scale while delivering nothing to the bottom line. The operating cash flow turned negative in the quarter, and Argus Research rates the stock a “Hold,” warning that the cash burn will delay earnings growth without offering shareholders near-term returns. As one analyst put it, Tesla is trying to burn money like a software startup while carrying the cost structure of a hardware manufacturer.
A Divided Investor Base
The sell-off has split Tesla’s shareholder base into two camps. On the bull side, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest reportedly bought $50 million worth of shares during the recent dip, betting that autonomous driving and robotics represent a generational inflection point. The average analyst price target of €373.67 implies roughly 34% upside from current levels, and the RSI of 29.6 suggests the stock is technically oversold — conditions that have historically preceded short-term bounces.
Tesla at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Bears counter that the gap between spending and visible progress is widening. Tesla has already lost its crown as the world’s largest EV maker to BYD. The aging Model S and Model X are being phased out to make room for robotics production. And the broader tech sell-off — Alphabet faced similar pressure over AI spending and negative cash flow — suggests that Wall Street’s patience with capital-intensive vision plays is wearing thin.
The Quarter That Will Settle It
The next catalyst is Tesla’s third-quarter disclosure of robotaxi miles and fleet economics. If paid miles break out of the 600,000-to-900,000-per-quarter range, the oversold technical setup could fuel a recovery toward the 50-day moving average of €347.12. If the plateau holds, the stock remains vulnerable to another test of the €262.00 low — and possibly a break below it.
For now, Tesla’s shareholders are paying the price of Musk’s ambition. The question is whether that ambition will eventually pay them back.
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