The $4.8 Billion Reversal: How Nebius’s Nvidia Euphoria Unraveled in Three Days
Published on 07/25/2026 at 18:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
It was the kind of week that encapsulates everything investors love and fear about AI infrastructure stocks. On Tuesday, Nebius shares surged more than 18 percent after Nvidia disclosed a 9.3 percent stake in the company. By Friday, the stock had given back virtually all of those gains, closing at $187.77 on the Nasdaq — a 15 percent single-day plunge that erased the week’s earlier excitement. In Frankfurt, the stock settled at €165.20, down nearly 15 percent from the prior session.
The whiplash was staggering. Over the past 30 days, Nebius has shed roughly 28 percent of its value, even as the stock remains up more than 270 percent over the past twelve months. That tension between short-term carnage and long-term rally captures the central question hanging over the company: Is the growth story still supporting the valuation, or has the stock run too far ahead of its fundamentals?
What the Nvidia Filing Actually Said
The initial catalyst seemed straightforward enough. Nvidia filed a Schedule 13G with U.S. regulators, revealing it held approximately 22.3 million shares of Nebius — a 9.3 percent passive stake. Investors read the filing as a powerful endorsement from the chip giant whose hardware is the lifeblood of the AI boom. The stock shot higher.
But the details told a more nuanced story. Of those 22.3 million shares, only about 1.2 million represent actual common stock held by Nvidia. The remainder comes from a pre-funded warrant tied to the previously announced $2 billion investment Nvidia made in Nebius. The headline suggested fresh capital flowing in. In reality, most of the position was an existing financial structure that simply became visible through the filing. Once the market digested that distinction, the initial euphoria evaporated.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
A Sector-Wide Selloff, Not Just a Nebius Problem
Friday’s rout wasn’t solely about Nebius-specific disappointment. The entire AI infrastructure sector came under pressure as risk aversion swept through the space. Competitors including CoreWeave and IREN also slid. Moody’s amplified the anxiety with a warning that surging capital expenditures across big tech could strain credit quality for multiple cloud and AI providers. The rating agency pegged industry-wide investment spending at roughly $785 billion for 2026, with expectations it could approach $1 trillion by 2027.
Adding to the unease, bond investors demanded higher yields around Meta’s planned $12 billion debt issuance for a Texas data center — a sign that the capital markets are beginning to scrutinize the financing behind the AI buildout more closely. Trading volume in Nebius exploded to approximately $4.77 billion on Friday alone, making it the most heavily traded stock of the day and representing a more than 40 percent increase from the prior session.
The $27 Billion Meta Deal That Anchors the Bull Case
Beneath the market turbulence, Nebius’s fundamental story remains intact — and in some respects, it has never been stronger. The company has secured a deal with Meta worth up to $27 billion for dedicated AI capacity over five years. That includes $12 billion in firm reserved capacity and up to $15 billion in additional compute power. Nebius only begins delivering that capacity early next year, meaning the revenue impact is still ramping rather than already flowing.
That contract sits alongside a $1 billion-plus deal with Reflection AI through 2029 and an existing Microsoft agreement worth $17 billion. Combined, the company’s bookings now reportedly exceed $40 billion. Nebius plans to deploy more than five gigawatts of Nvidia systems by 2030 and recently validated its first Vera Rubin NVL72 rack in Finland.
The latest quarterly results support the optimistic reading. Revenue surged from $50.9 million to $399.0 million, driven by the AI cloud business. Net income from continuing operations swung from a loss of $104.3 million to a profit of $621.2 million, aided by a $780.6 million revaluation of equity investments. On an operational basis, adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time in company history, improving from negative $53.7 million to positive $129.5 million.
The Bear Case: Losses, Insider Sales, and Eye-Watering Capex
Yet the risks are equally concrete. Despite the revenue explosion, Nebius posted an adjusted net loss of $100.3 million in its fiscal first quarter of 2026, with total operating costs reaching $527.0 million. The core business remains loss-making even as spending accelerates.
The capital intensity is staggering. Chip purchases, new equipment, and data center expansion are driving quarterly expenditures to roughly $2.5 billion. The company expects to invest between $20 billion and $25 billion in 2026 alone. To help fund that, Nebius secured a $775 million secured credit facility from MUFG on July 20, priced at SOFR plus 250 basis points and maturing in October 2030. It also introduced a new asset-light partnership model designed to reduce the capital burden of future data center projects.
Insider activity has added another layer of caution. CEO Arkady Volozh and the CFO sold a combined 668,405 shares over the past three months, worth roughly $140 million. Volozh alone disposed of $10.98 million in stock. Those sales come at a time when short interest stands at approximately 24 percent of the free float.
Analyst opinions remain divided. Northland recently raised its price target to $410, while Baird upgraded the stock to Strong Buy. The broader consensus is more cautious, with targets clustering between $222 and $259 and ratings mostly at “Moderate Buy.” Valuation remains a flashpoint: depending on the methodology, Nebius trades at a price-to-earnings ratio between 60 and 100, far above the sector average of roughly 27.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What Comes Next
Technically, the stock sits 16.88 percent below its 50-day moving average of €198.75 but remains more than 36 percent above its 200-day average of €121.19. The 14-day RSI of 42.6 signals neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
The near-term trajectory likely hinges on whether existing contracts — Meta, Reflection AI, and potential additional deals — translate into improving margins rather than remaining pipeline commitments. The next concrete test will be Nebius’s upcoming quarterly report, where investors will watch whether adjusted losses continue to shrink and whether the core business is genuinely trending toward sustainable profitability.
If new capacity agreements keep arriving and the Nasdaq-100 inclusion — which Nebius joined alongside Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Rocket Lab, and Teradyne — generates structural buying demand, the bull case supports stabilization above the 200-day average. But if Meta’s buildout slips beyond its targeted early 2027 start, or if further sector-wide shocks trigger another sentiment-driven selloff, the bear case becomes more probable: a correction back toward the 100-day average near €159.14 or lower.
For now, Nebius remains a stock where explosive growth and punishing volatility are two sides of the same coin — and where the market’s mood can flip faster than a data center can power up a GPU cluster.
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Nebius Stock: New Analysis - 25 July
Fresh Nebius information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
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