The Apple-Intel Ripple Effect: ASML Looks Beyond High-NA as a €80 Million Buyback Backs the Rally

A potential foundry deal between Apple and Intel could funnel billions of euros into ASML’s existing EUV business, shifting the spotlight away from next-generation machines. Bank of America estimates the partnership might be worth up to $10 billion in total, with ASML capturing between €1.8 billion and €4.6 billion in new tool orders depending on whether Apple’s iPhone chips are included. That would translate to roughly 15 EUV systems, all drawn from the current Low-NA product line rather than the ultra-expensive High-NA scanners that have dominated recent headlines.

The timing is crucial because TSMC, the industry’s biggest buyer, has pushed back its adoption of High-NA. The Taiwanese giant cited high costs and sufficient performance from today’s machines, and Bernstein analysts say they never expected TSMC to use the technology before the A14 node. A single High-NA tool costs more than €350 million, and TSMC’s first purchases are now not expected until 2029 at the earliest. Intel, by contrast, is playing the pioneer, planning to deploy High-NA for its 14A foundry node, while Samsung has already secured an additional scanner for early 2026.

Against that backdrop, ASML’s share buyback programme has been adding extra fuel. The company disclosed on 11 May that it had spent nearly €80 million in the first week of the month to repurchase roughly 63,000 of its own shares. The buyback, part of a larger scheme launched at the end of January, came on top of a stock that had already surged more than 36% since the start of the year. On the day of the announcement the share price climbed 4% to €1,346.40, brushing against its year-to-date high. A week or so earlier the stock had been trading around €1,310, still up 32.55% for 2025.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Asml?

Those gains rest on solid fundamentals. In the first quarter ASML generated €2.76 billion in net profit on revenue of €8.77 billion. The order book stood at €38.8 billion, and management maintained its full-year guidance for sales of up to €40 billion. The company also updated its medium-term outlook, raising the 2026 revenue range to €36–40 billion, up from previous expectations. Bank of America responded by lifting its price target from €1,598 to €1,710, keeping a Buy rating on the stock.

The real catalyst for future deliveries, however, appears to be the Low-NA EUV fleet. Bank of America now forecasts 65 Low-NA shipments in 2026 and 85 in 2027, with customers including TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron and SK Hynix. ASML itself has guided for at least 60 Low-NA systems next year and 80 in 2027. Supply constraints mean the company cannot satisfy all demand, which bolsters pricing power but also strains the supply chain.

To secure its technological lead through the next cycle, ASML refreshed its top management at the annual general meeting on 22 April. Shareholders formally approved Marco Pieters, a long-time insider, as chief technology officer on the board, tasking him with scaling production of the next-generation High-NA EUV systems. CFO Roger Dassen received a new four-year mandate, and chief operating officer Frédéric Schneider-Maunoury was confirmed for two more years.

For now, the stock’s technical picture remains strong, with the price well above its 50-day moving average. But the bigger near-term question is not the High-NA timeline — it is whether the Apple-Intel deal materialises and, if so, whether it includes large iPhone chips. That would dramatically boost Intel’s need for EUV capacity and, by extension, ASML’s Low-NA orders. Even without the iPhone, the underlying thesis for ASML’s core lithography business looks intact, but the upside from a megadeal is what analysts and investors are starting to price in.

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