The XRP Paradox: Institutional ETF Inflows Accelerate Just as Retail Wallet Creation Hits 16-Month Low
Published on 07/12/2026 at 03:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
XRP is trading in a narrow corridor near $1.09, barely above its 52-week trough of $1.01, but the surface calm masks a growing divergence. While institutional investors have poured roughly $1.48 billion into spot XRP exchange-traded funds over nine consecutive weeks, activity on the XRP Ledger itself has withered to levels not seen in months.
Data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment shows daily active addresses on the network falling to just 25,350 — the second-lowest print of the year. Even more telling, the number of new wallets created slumped to 2,130, the weakest figure since November 2024. The decline was not abrupt; after a brief spike in early June, on-chain usage has eroded steadily week after week.
A short-lived rally on June 15 provided a flicker of hope. Buyers stepped in after a price dip, pushing active addresses higher for a moment and prompting talk of a turnaround. But the recovery fizzled almost immediately. XRP corrected back into its familiar $1.05–$1.15 range, and network activity resumed its slide — this time without reclaiming the pre-rally baseline. Analysts point out that new wallet creation barely budged during that episode, suggesting the move was driven by existing holders reshuffling positions rather than fresh demand.
That reading is reinforced by shifts in exchange flow data. According to Xaif Crypto, Coinbase’s share of XRP net flows collapsed from roughly 28% to just 1.8% over recent weeks, while the smaller exchange Bittrex absorbed nearly 30% of the flow — its highest share in months. Traders often interpret a migration from heavily regulated platforms toward less institutionally supervised venues as a precursor to selling pressure.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Meanwhile, the institutional channel remains wide open. Seven spot XRP ETFs are now trading in the US with combined assets under management of approximately $1 billion, collectively holding 964.5 million tokens. The weekly inflow streak that began in late spring continued uninterrupted through the end of June, even as on-chain activity weakened. But that streak may be about to break: data for the week through July 9 showed net outflows of $7.29 million, the first weekly red ink in ten weeks. Friday’s closing numbers will determine whether the run officially ends.
Price action offers little clarity. XRP is stuck between $1.07 support and $1.15 resistance, with the 50-day moving average at $1.17 and the 200-day at $1.46 — both well above current levels. The relative strength index sits at 44, neutral territory that signals a market in wait-and-see mode. There is a glimmer of bullish divergence: the RSI printed higher lows in June while price made lower lows, hinting at latent buying pressure. Yet the moving average alignment remains firmly bearish, with the 20-day EMA at $1.1119 acting as the first hurdle.
For the year, XRP is down 41.75%, and over twelve months the loss deepens to 54.55%. That leaves the token about 70% below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 2025 and only 8% above the 2026 low of $1.01 set in late June.
XRP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Potential catalysts for a revival in on-chain activity are on the horizon but not yet materializing. The RLUSD dollar-pegged stablecoin could generate more transaction flow between exchanges and payment platforms, while tokenized real-world assets and expanded service-provider support offer longer-term pathways. A sustained break above $1.15 would challenge the current bearish structure and open the door to a move toward $1.20–$1.25. Conversely, losing the $1.07 floor would bring the psychologically critical $1.00 mark back into play.
The central question for the second half of the year is whether ETF-driven institutional capital can continue to prop up the token while the organic heartbeat of the network — active users and new participants — remains dormant. That gap will need to close before the current holding pattern transforms into something more dynamic.
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