Thyssenkrupp’s Green Steel Gamble Hinges on Elusive 67% Iron Ore as EU Trade Walls Rise
Published on 06/16/2026 at 16:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The rally in Thyssenkrupp’s shares has been impressive — up nearly 17% since the start of the year and roughly 31% over the past twelve months, with the stock changing hands at around €11.34. That puts it about 12% above its 200-day moving average of €10.05, a signal of steady medium-term momentum. Yet the durability of that advance now depends on a single raw material bottleneck that no trade barrier can fix.
At the heart of the company’s future lies a €3 billion direct-reduction plant in Duisburg, scheduled to begin hydrogen-based production in 2026. Unlike traditional blast furnaces, these facilities require iron ore with an iron content of at least 67% — a grade that is scarce and fiercely contested globally. Without securing stable supply, Thyssenkrupp’s entire green transformation risks stalling before it even gains traction.
The group is actively pursuing tie-ups with specialist suppliers such as Strategic Resources and established miners like Rio Tinto. But competition for high-grade ore is intensifying as steelmakers worldwide race to decarbonise, and the window to lock in long-term contracts is narrowing.
EU protection delivers a tailwind — but not a free ride
From 1 July 2026, the European Union will slash its duty-free steel import quota to 18.3 million tonnes a year — a drop of nearly 47% from current levels. Any shipments above that threshold will face a 50% tariff, double the previous rate. The European Parliament approved the regulation on 19 May, and Council endorsement is considered a formality. For Thyssenkrupp, which has lobbied hard for such measures, the move eases pressure from cheap Asian imports.
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However, the real competitive edge these protections provide will only materialise once the company can reliably source the high-grade ore needed to operate its hydrogen-ready plant. Regulatory support alone cannot substitute for raw material security.
Earnings rebound offers breathing room
Thyssenkrupp’s second-quarter adjusted EBIT surged to €198 million, up sharply from just €19 million in the same period a year earlier, helped by lower input costs and early restructuring gains. Despite that, the broader outlook remains cautious: management forecasts a revenue decline of up to 3% for the 2025/2026 financial year.
The operational improvement buys time, but the underlying challenge is structural. The company is simultaneously executing a corporate overhaul under the “ACES 2030” strategy, which aims to restructure Thyssenkrupp as a financial holding. Units such as tk Accelis and the defence arm Marine Systems are being groomed for independence. A supervisory board meeting later this month on the materials division is seen as the next step, and an extraordinary general meeting is being considered for the summer to approve further spin-offs.
Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the stock’s fate is tied to two unknowns: whether the EU shield will hold off low-cost rivals long enough, and — more critically — whether Thyssenkrupp can nail down the iron ore deals that make its green steel plan a reality.
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