Thyssenkrupp’s Make-or-Break Summer Hinges on Steel Surgery and a Shareholder Vote
30.06.2026 - 02:45:08 | boerse-global.de
Thyssenkrupp is asking investors to endure another round of pain before reward. The German industrial conglomerate is doubling down on an internal fix for its bleeding steel division while simultaneously preparing to spin off its lucrative materials trading arm — a dual-track strategy that has left the stock trading at €10.21, roughly 23% below its October 2025 high of €13.24. The market’s verdict will come into sharper focus on 7 August, when shareholders vote on the tk accelis demerger.
The decision to suspend talks with India’s Jindal over the sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe marked a sharp reversal from earlier expectations. Management cited rising steel prices and tougher EU safeguard measures against cheap imports — the latter taking effect from 1 July — as justification for keeping the division in-house. Instead of a sale, the company now aims to restructure the steel unit independently, shedding roughly 11,000 jobs at a cost in the mid-three-digit million-euro range.
Yet the financials remain unforgiving. For the current fiscal year 2025/2026, Thyssenkrupp expects a negative free cash flow before M&A and a net result between minus €800 million and minus €400 million. That explains why the stock, despite climbing nearly 44% from its March low of €7.10, has struggled to break decisively higher. The turnaround, in other words, is not a straight line.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
While steel bleeds, the materials business — tk accelis — is being prepared for independence. Under the approved plan, Thyssenkrupp shareholders will receive one tk accelis share for every 20 Thyssenkrupp shares they hold. The new entity, with 15,500 employees and revenues of €11.4 billion in the last financial year, will list on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange provided the extraordinary general meeting gives the green light. Thyssenkrupp itself will initially retain a 51% stake, with 49% distributed directly to shareholders.
The materials business operates a “Materials-as-a-Service” model targeting high-growth markets such as aviation, defence, and data centres. Analysts are split on the value this will unlock. Jefferies reaffirmed its buy rating with a price target of €13, arguing the spin-off could surface hidden value. JPMorgan, more cautious, rates the stock neutral with a target of €11.80. At current levels around €10.17–€10.21, the shares carry a significant discount to the more bullish forecast.
This spin-off follows the successful listing of Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems in October 2025, which the company regards as a blueprint for the holding structure it envisages under the “ACES 2030” strategy. The plan is to transform Thyssenkrupp into a lean financial holding company with independently operating businesses. In parallel, a new alliance with Hitachi Group’s GlobalLogic aims to accelerate the industrial transformation through physical AI — a move that speaks to the need for modernisation, but also to the cost of achieving it.
CEO Miguel López is pushing the holding model relentlessly, but the market’s patience will be tested by the steel division’s performance. The August vote will be a crucial validation point. If shareholders approve the tk accelis demerger, the group will have taken another major step toward its leaner structure. If not, the whole strategy — including the steel restructuring and the holding ambition — could face a crisis of confidence. For now, the transformation continues, noisy, crowded with deadlines, and far from finished.
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