Thyssenkrupp’s Restructuring Hits Multiple Fronts as Steel Valuation Jumps and Nucera Switches to Service Contracts

Thyssenkrupp is navigating a complex overhaul on two distinct tracks – while its beleaguered steel division has been revalued sharply higher, its hydrogen subsidiary is scrapping early-stage projects and betting on long-term service revenue. The mixed picture, delivered alongside a surprise earnings beat, sent shares climbing more than 3.7% on Wednesday to €10.36 before settling at €10.44.

The industrial conglomerate booked an adjusted EBIT of €198 million in the first half of its financial year, comfortably above the consensus estimate of €167 million. Revenue dipped 2% to €8.4 billion, reflecting weak steel prices and subdued demand from the auto sector. Management now expects full-year revenue to stagnate at best, while guiding for adjusted EBIT in a range of €500 million to €900 million. Net losses are forecast between €400 million and €800 million, a direct consequence of the deep restructuring under way.

Steel Europe wins a new valuation

The most striking development comes from the steel unit, where the book value has been lifted to €3 billion from €2.4 billion in December. The revaluation is underpinned by EU safeguard tariffs that shield domestic producers and by early signs that cost-cutting measures are taking effect. This marks a vote of confidence from management after months of uncertainty over the division’s future.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?

Parallel to the valuation update, Thyssenkrupp has paused sale talks with India’s Jindal Steel. The board intends to press ahead with the turnaround internally for now, though the longer-term goal of spinning off Steel Europe as a standalone entity remains intact. Job cuts remain firmly on the agenda, with up to 11,000 positions to be eliminated or outsourced. The separation of its stake in Hüttenwerke Krupp-Mannesmann is also moving forward, with Salzgitter lined up as the buyer and June 1 targeted for completion – a step that brings Thyssenkrupp closer to a pure holding-company structure.

Nucera pivots from green hydrogen to service revenue

The water-stricken hydrogen arm, Thyssenkrupp Nucera, posted a €64 million loss in the second quarter. The division’s revenue turned negative at -€33 million after a €50 million write-down on a project with US fertilizer group CF Industries in Louisiana. In response, Nucera is shifting its business model away from manufacturing electrolysis equipment toward multi-decade service contracts, which it says represent a potential revenue pool of over €2 billion across 25 years.

The company has classified its SOEC solid-oxide electrolysis technology as not yet market-ready and has paused new hiring. Despite the setback, order intake climbed to €176 million, boosted by a 300-megawatt order for the Project Onuba in Spain. The pivot reflects a broader recalibration of green hydrogen ambitions across the industry, as near-term profitability remains elusive.

Cash cushion and analyst split

Thyssenkrupp at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

Thyssenkrupp enters the next phase with €4.6 billion in liquidity, providing a buffer for the costly restructuring. The balance sheet strength is one reason the market has warmed to the stock – the shares have gained more than 20% over the past 30 days and now trade roughly 46% above their March low of €7.15.

Analyst opinion remains divided. Deutsche Bank reiterates a Buy with a €14.50 target, citing growing confidence in earnings momentum. JPMorgan has lifted its target to €11.80 on a Neutral rating, pointing to the higher valuation of the TK Elevator stake. DZ Bank sees fair value at €11.00 but warns that free cash flow improvement is essential, while Barclays, at Underweight with a €9.00 target, flags weak free cash flow as the primary risk.

The next quarterly report on August 13 will test whether Thyssenkrupp can narrow the gap between its operational progress and the persistent cash flow concerns that keep the bears circling.

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