TSMC’s Paradox: A Record Quarter From a Key Customer Spurs a Sector-Wide Sell-Off
Veröffentlicht: 08.07.2026 um 01:11 Uhr, Redaktion boerse-global.de
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. suffered a heavy blow on Tuesday, losing more than 5% of its market value and sliding to €375.50, even as its fabrication lines run at full tilt and a major client delivers blockbuster earnings. The contradiction underscores a growing tension in the chip sector: investors are suddenly questioning how long the artificial-intelligence spending spree can last, and that doubt is weighing on even the most tightly booked suppliers.
The trigger came from Samsung Electronics, which posted preliminary second-quarter operating profit of 89.4 trillion won — a roughly 19-fold jump from a year earlier. Rather than cheering the milestone, traders treated it as a cue to lock in gains, sparking a classic “sell on the news” cascade that swept across Asian semiconductor stocks. The rout sent Taiwan’s TAIEX index plunging 1,077.28 points, its eighth-worst single-day drop ever, and pulled TSMC down alongside it.
Analysts point to an “AI barometer” that has been set so high that even record results no longer satisfy. Foreign institutional investors used the strength to take profits broadly. At the same time, a news item out of China added to the unease: AI startup DeepSeek is developing its own inference chips and has raised around $7.5 billion in a funding round, raising the prospect that big AI players may eventually rely less on external foundries like TSMC. A missile attack on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz further rattled sentiment, compounding the pressure on technology and commodity markets alike.
None of these headwinds, however, have touched TSMC’s day-to-day operations. Its 3-nanometer process is running at over 120% utilization, and the company’s CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is being expanded from roughly 8,000 wafers per month to more than 12,000 by the end of 2026. Gross margin hit 66.2% in the first quarter, and net margin reached 50.5% — a reflection of the pricing power that comes from being the sole manufacturer for many of the industry’s most advanced AI accelerators.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TSMC?
Yet that pricing power faces a near-term test. The ramp-up of TSMC’s next-generation 2-nanometer process, set for the second half of the year, is expected to shave two to three percentage points off gross margins. Rising chemical costs, partly linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the ongoing expense of building new fabs overseas add to the drag. The market will be looking for clarity on these margin dynamics when TSMC holds its official investor conference later in July.
The technical picture has become more balanced after the sell-off. The 14-day relative strength index stands at 48.3, a neutral reading that contrasts with the overbought territory it occupied earlier this month. On a seven-day basis the stock is down 10.17%, and it now sits 10.70% below its 52-week high of €420.50 reached on July 1. Still, the longer-term trend remains intact: the share price is up 37.55% year to date and trades 28.79% above its 200-day moving average.
Wall Street has so far kept the faith. JPMorgan recently raised its target on TSMC to 3,100 Taiwan dollars, citing capacity expansions through 2029 and expected 69% annual growth in AI-related revenue. Both Citi and Barclays have also lifted their price targets, highlighting the company’s resilient margin profile. Their optimism will be put to the test when TSMC reports second-quarter earnings around mid-July, with analysts forecasting earnings per share of $3.81 on revenue of roughly $40.04 billion — a sharp increase from a year earlier.
TSMC at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, the sell-off looks more like a healthy correction in a stock that had rallied hard than a fundamental breakdown. TSMC remains the only manufacturer capable of producing many of the most advanced AI chips, and that monopoly position is unlikely to erode quickly. The key question, and the one that will likely dominate the upcoming investor conference, is whether the current wave of capital spending by cloud giants can sustain its momentum — or whether the industry is nearing an inflection point that could test even TSMC’s pricing muscle.
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