TUI Pitches Dutch Government Jet Deal as Tax Relief Fails to Lift Stock
Published on 07/08/2026 at 16:07 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
TUI is betting on a government contract in The Hague to spice up a narrative that has left investors cold. The travel group, together with rival Corendon, has offered to take over the operation and maintenance of the Dutch government's current Boeing 737, potentially saving the state around $100 million on a new aircraft. Yet the proposal has done nothing to arrest the stock's decline, with TUI shares down 21.61% year-to-date and 19.70% over the past twelve months.
The Dutch cabinet has been eyeing a replacement jet for official travel and the royal family after KLM, the incumbent operator, shifts its fleet to Airbus, leaving it unable to maintain the Boeing 737. TUI and Corendon, both heavy users of Boeing aircraft, have stepped in with a proposal to run and service the plane themselves. The infrastructure ministry has so far resisted, arguing that only KLM currently meets all strict security requirements. A final cabinet decision is still pending.
That political uncertainty weighs little compared with the concrete cost relief already arriving from Berlin. Germany slashed its air transport tax on July 1, rolling rates back to levels seen before May 2024. The reduction saves airlines up to €11.40 per passenger – short-haul fares now attract about €13 in tax, while long-haul tickets cost around €59. The move will cost the federal budget €330 million in lost revenue next year but is welcomed by the travel industry. Albin Loidl of the German Travel Association called it a key step for affordable holidays, though he urged further cuts in air traffic control costs.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TUI?
For TUI, the tax cut hits the bottom line directly, lowering the cost base of its flight operations. The company could pocket the savings to lift margins or pass them on to customers – either way, it gains financial breathing room. A second pocket of relief arrives in November when fees for the travel security fund are due to fall. TUI is one of the largest contributors to that scheme, so a lower charge will further reduce operating expenses in the next fiscal year.
None of this has stirred buyers out of hiding. The stock closed Wednesday at exactly €7.00, down 2.37% on the day, and remains stuck below the psychologically important €8 mark. Technical indicators look grim: the share price sits roughly 8.5% below its 200-day moving average of €7.65, a level that has acted as hard resistance for months. The 50-day average, by contrast, has been reclaimed over the past 30 days, during which the stock gained 5.75%.
What is holding TUI back? High kerosene prices and a record wave of customer complaints – both mentioned in recent trading commentary – continue to sandbag sentiment. The company has yet to release concrete summer booking data that could provide a fundamental catalyst. Until then, the market is pricing no premium for the Dutch maintenance deal or the German tax cut. The path above €8, analysts say, requires a strong catalyst that only fresh demand figures can deliver.
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